Mthobeli Jiwulane

South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa is yet to announce his Cabinet reshuffle and the nation is waiting with abated breaths about his choice of individuals to constitute the executive but the President is facing several dilemmas.

Amidst a raging debate about when he would do it and who he would appoint among his fellow members of the governing party, the President has got everybody guessing as he keeps on moving the goal-posts about the issue. It was first speculated that he would announce it before his annual State of the Nation Address (SONA) early this month, but it didn’t happen.

There was high hopes that he would announced after the SONA in Parliament, but again the President remained silent on the matter. The latest was that the he had confided with some that he would finally make the much anticipated announcement after the Budget Speech by his Minister of Finance, Enoch Godongwana.

But experts and prominent individuals within the ruling African National Congress believe that was a delaying tactic by the President because the Budget Speech had no link with a Cabinet reshuffle. They argued that in fact national budget should be announced with all Ministers in their new positions following the Cabinet adjustments.

As the President had announced a plan to introduce a new Ministry of Electricity to deal handle the ailing power state power utility, Eskom, and the endemic power load-shedding that had devastated the country’s economy for the last year to date, it was absurd that a budget would be allocated to a Minister who has not yet to be appointed due to the delay.

Even some members of the all-powerful national executive committee (NEC) of the ANC have been left baffled by the President’s procrastination. Some publicly expressed disappointment and even agitation at his “unnecessary delay” on such an obvious announcement.

But political experts believe the President was faced with a myriad of dilemmas which he was trying to address behind the scenes and that caused his delay to restructure and announced the Cabinet.

Top among those was the fact that he has to consult widely within the ruling party about individuals he should appoint. He has an excessively consultative leadership style and is notorious for procrastination on any decision no matter how small or straight forward it is.

Unlike his predecessor, former President Jacob Zuma who regularly reshuffled Cabinet sometimes overnight and fired those who he did not like, Ramaphosa is weary of removing underperformers or dismiss Ministers who publicly opposed his leadership. He would rather go out of his way to accommodate them to avoid causing division within the party, whose unity and renewal he is accused of prioritising over the state functionality.

Ramaphosa disappointed all and sundry when he failed to act against his in-house opponents such as the Minister of Tourism, Lindiwe Sisulu, the daughter of the late ANC struggle stalwarts Walter and Albertina Sisulu, Minister of Co-operative Governance and Traditional Affairs, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and Deputy Minister of Public Enterprises, Phumulo Masualle.

Sisulu demanded that the President must account for the large amount of cash in US dollars that was stolen from his farm, Phala Phala, in Limpopo Province and Dlamini-Zuma publicly voted for the President to be impeached over the Phala Phala saga. Masualle, not only heavily criticised the President for poor leadership during his election campaign, he supported former Health Minister, Zweli Mkhize who contested Ramaphosa for the ANC president last December.

Many doubt if the President would act at all against his opponents considering his lame-duck leadership approach and his indecisiveness.

A panel appointed by Parliament found there was a case to answer by Ramaphosa surrounding the stolen cash which was stuffed inside a sofa on the President’s farm-house in 2020. Other law-enforcement agencies are still investigating the matter but President Ramaphosa had so far vehemently denied any wrong doing. Parliament in Cape Town voted not to pursue his impeachment due to lack of evidence pertaining to the allegations and Ramaphosa had taken the Panel report on a judicial review.

Some observers believe the real contention was around the filling of the country’s Deputy President position after incumbent David Mabuza suddenly announced his resignation at a family funeral a fortnight ago. Ramaphosa is expected to appoint ANC deputy president, Paul Mashatile, to replace Mabuza. But it won’t be so easy because Ramaphosa supporters oppose Mashatile for that position, rather preferring the President to offer him an ordinary Cabinet post.

The distrust against Mashatile came after he campaigned and was elected under Mkhize’s banner during the ANC elections in December. Mashatile’s loyalty to Ramaphosa was questioned and some claim it was or pretentious and he could easily turn the tables against Ramaphosa on Phala Phala saga, should he become President of South Africa in future.

Rather than appoint Mashatile as his deputy president, Ramaphosa requested Mabuza to withdraw his resignation and stay on to finish the remaining part of his five-year term of office.

As the 2024 general elections are around the corner, it remains to be seen whether Mashatile would contest Ramaphosa or support him to get a second term as head of state. But one thing for sure, there was tension between the two leaders, which was expected to intensify should Ramaphosa not give him the DP position.

Whatever happens, there were clear signs that Mashatile could not wait to take over from Ramaphosa. The best and only way to get there is for him to occupy the number two position now.

The real battle for succession lies ahead and Mashatile faced an uphill battle as Ramaphosa’s followers were strategizing to ensure he does not rise higher than a mere Minister.

But whatever position Mashatile is offered by Ramaphosa in the new Cabinet or not, would be the first indicator of President’s intentions about him. But either way it would confirm the speculations that indeed Ramaphosa’s procrastination around Cabinet reshuffle had to do mainly with his mistrust of Mashatile.