Mthobeli Jiwulane

The West may still be clinging onto power at the helm of the world economy, but the rise of the developing world to replace it at the top has really began.

Many in the Global South, but not as many in the West, admit that the decision by the China-dominated Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (Brics) alliance to admit three leading Gulf oil-producing states as members today, posed a real threat to the West’s dominance of the Economic World Order.

This after Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Iran were announced by President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa, the new chairperson of bloc, as new members along with Argentina, Egypt and Ethiopia. The decision was reached during the 15th BRICS Summit held in Johannesburg South Africa from 22-24 August.

With Egypt and Ethiopia as members, Africa now has three members on the economic forum. The six countries would effectively join the body in January next year while the decision whether to admit the rest of at least 20 potential members or not, was still under discussion. But the acceptance of the oil-rich nations were seen as a “smart move” by experts in South Africa. They said this would boost BRICS’ global gross domestic product, now at 32% and envisaged to grow as high as 50% in the next decade.

The majority of non-West experts already see the West as being threatened by BRICS sudden growth, which was expected anyway. Even the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund had been reporting about the potential growth of BRICS to greater levels.

But this forum of developing nations, established in 2010 to boost economic co-operation and trade among themselves, seemed to be growing fast and expanding beyond its initial five members. Interest in joining the alliance emerging from many countries, some of which had not yet applied for membership.

Membership to the six countries was deliberated during a retreat of the original five member presidents excluding Russia’s Vladimir Putin who could not attend the Summit due to warrant of arrest issued by the International Criminal Court against him over allegations of human rights violations in ongoing war in Ukraine.

But Russia was physically represented at the Summit by Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov.

Political analysts were of the view that BRICS prioritised the Gulf states ostensibly because of their oil, which would boost the alliance’s global GDP, currently at 32%. The body had attracted not only new developing nations, but huge interest in participation in it came from even the poorest economies of Africa and South America, who saw the membership as an opportunity to boost their fledgling economies.

According to Dr Levy Ndou, a political science lecturer at the Pretoria-based Tshwane University of Technology, BRICS became attractive to the developing and poor countries alike because the alliance was founded on the principle of building its members’ economies and to deliver services and better life to their ordinary citizens.

“The dominance of the West is actually threatened by BRICS growth. BRICS has the potential to change the world order. If it prospered, it could make other countries stand up and do better for their respective poor citizens and that is good for economy,” he said.

However views emanating from the West did not see BRICS as a threat at all and its growth is described as “a pipe dream” by officials, Western media and some experts.

Even the introduction of a single currency for BRICS and the envisaged establishment of an equitable international payment system for its trade were seen as “unworkable” in the Western capitals.

But South Africa’s President Ramaphosa said the single currency issue and proper payment system were matters for future joint discussions at level of Finance Ministers and governors of the central banks of the alliance’s member states.

There was general acknowledgement within BRICS that a lot of ground still needed to be covered before a uniform currency was introduced. In the meantime, contrary to the wishes of the BRICS states, the US dollar would remain the major currency of international trade. But there was a desperate need to do away with the US dollar.

But when the countries would use local currencies when they trade among themselves. This was seen as a blow to the US which benefited immensely from the use of the US dollar in world trade.

The Summit adopted the Johannesburg II Declaration, accompanied by statements of commitments to Bric’s goals of co-operation. Presidents Lula da Silva of Brazil, Narendra Modi of India, Chinese’s Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin of Russia, who addressed through a digital link-up from Moscow, each made statements elaborating on their inputs to ease intra-BRICS trade.

The declaration called for comprehensive reform of the UN and the UN Security Councils including increased representation of the developing nations. Reforms must be implemented by the world financial institutions – World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. They asked for fairer and equitable dealings for poorer and developing countries by the World Trade Organisation and restructuring of the WTO appellate mechanism.

The meeting was attended by over sixty heads of state from the global South including the BRICS Plus – comprising countries that aspired to join BRICS.
Following the summit, BRICS members states were expected to increase co-operation among themselves and to interact with the BRICS Plus. At least 200 business forums including on agriculture, manufacturing, environment and green economy, were held to share ideas and explore co-operation.

Several memorandums of understanding pertaining in various fields, were signed including one between the South Africa’s Industrial Development Corporation and the Development Bank of China to formalise their co-operation. In the field of agriculture, China offered to open new markets for the importation of South Africa’s avocado pears to China. Russia, the world largest grain producer, undertook to deliver grain to African countries to fill the gap left by Ukraine’s failure to deliver to the continent.

Some political analysts said the West’s response to the BRICS growth could be to increase its security alert including monitoring all threats to itself emanating from BRICS. But the experts were of the same view that BRICS was a huge threat to the West’s dominance of the world economy and they did not dismiss the possibility of BRICS becoming the leading economic hegemon to replace the US in the long run.