Turkmen Terzi

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan continues to hold the distinction of being the foreign leader with the most visits to the African continent, forging close ties with Latin America, a region Ankara had overlooked until the 1990s. However, Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) suffered its first loss of majority in the 31st March local elections in 22 years, casting doubt on its ability to regain sole governance in the upcoming 2028 general election. With Turkey possibly reverting to a more Western-oriented foreign policy, Arab nations within the BRICS bloc are seizing the opportunity to expand their influence in the Global South at Ankara’s expense.

Turkey is a strong NATO member and has positioned itself as part of the Global North since the Turkish Republic was established. However, it has neglected the Global South, a term referring to less economically developed African and Latin American countries. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has prioritized political and economic relations with the Global South for the last two decades at the expense of Turkey’s traditional Western allies. On the other hand, Turkey is still knocking on the door of the European Union for membership and has not officially become part of any new bloc of the Global South, since the powerful members of BRICS, Russia, and China, use the term to advocate for a new global order against Western dominance.

Turkey is a NATO country and a member of both the Western European and Others Group (WEOG) and the Asia Pacific Group, but electorally it only counts for WEOG. Since Turkey is part of the Global North, it did not take part in the Non-Aligned Movement, and the Group of 77 (G77) at the United Nations (UN) is a coalition of 135 developing countries.

For decades, Turkey has embraced the renowned motto of the Republic’s founder, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk: ‘Peace at home, peace in the world,’ shaping it into a cornerstone of its foreign policy. In contrast to Turkey’s previous pro-Western leadership, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who assumed office in 2002, adopted a multidimensional foreign policy. He actively cultivated economic and cultural ties, particularly with African and Latin American nations, diverging from the traditional Western-centric approach. Turkey announced its African Initiative Policy process in 1998, and the AKP declared Ankara as an observing member and strategic partner of the African Union (AU) in 2005 and 2008 respectively. Since then, Turkey’s total trade volume with the African Continent has increased from $5.4 billion in 2003 to $40.7 billion in 2022. The number of Turkish Embassies in Africa has increased from 12 in 2002 to 44 as of 2022. Similar to its African opening, Turkey designated Latin America as a strategic global partner by preparing the “Action Plan for Latin America and the Caribbean” in 1998 and declaring the “Year of Latin America and the Caribbean” in 2006. Thanks to proactive political initiatives, Turkey’s total trade volume with the Latin American region has experienced a substantial increase, soaring from $1 billion in 2002 to $15 billion in 2021.

However, Turkey’s assertive foreign policy practices are raising concerns among leaders in Latin America and Africa, many of whom have a history of being victims of colonialism. Erdogan shifted from a more conciliatory foreign policy to an assertively aggressive stance since the onset of the Syrian conflict in 2011. Ankara has directly intervened in armed conflicts in Syria, Libya, and Azerbaijan’s war against Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh. Erdogan’s efforts to promote arms sales to African countries and the growing influx of drug shipments from the Latin American and Caribbean regions to Turkish ports are eroding Turkey’s once reputable position in these continents. Moreover, Erdogan’s media crackdown and human rights violations receive huge criticism from the citizens of these Global South nations who are very sensitive about human rights.

Conversely, energy-producing Middle Eastern nations, aligned with Turkey through shared history and religious ties, are amplifying their sway in the Global South, potentially posing a challenge to Turkish influence. Energy-rich countries like the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have successfully diversified their economy through investments in these regions, while Iran and Egypt strengthen their political and economic ties with Global South nations. These countries officially became BRICS members as of January 1. These Arab nations and Iran, which are starting to compete with Turkey in the MENA region, now have a chance to further strengthen their economic and military ties with the other BRICS members of China, Russia, South Africa, Brazil, and Ethiopia, who designated themselves as part of the Global South. Saudi Arabia hosted its first Saudi-Africa Summit in November last year in Riyadh, which 50 African leaders attended. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud pledged a $25 billion investment by 2030 at the summit. Egypt is currently focusing on mega infrastructure investments and is going to play a key role in unifying Africa since the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has been formed. The United Arab Emirates, as the fourth largest investor in Africa with investments of over $60 billion, behind China, Europe, and the United States, will further strengthen its ties with Africa through BRICS membership. As the US hegemonic presence in the region dwindles, Latin American countries have increased their economic and cultural ties with Middle Eastern countries. Large numbers of Syrian refugees in Brazil, Latin America’s support for the Palestinian cause, and rich Gulf countries’ investment initiatives in the region bring these two troubled regions closer together.

Turkey needs to work closely with the Global South countries, especially since the powerful Middle Eastern nations of Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE have been accepted as new BRICS members. However, recent electoral setbacks and assertive foreign policy moves have raised concerns among these regions, potentially undermining Turkey’s once-reputable position. Concurrently, Arab nations, buoyed by economic diversification efforts and geopolitical alignments, are leveraging their influence within the BRICS bloc to further solidify ties with the Global South. As Turkey navigates these evolving dynamics, it faces the challenge of balancing its traditional alliances with emerging power dynamics in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.