Written by Mirna Fahmy
It is predicted that summer 2024 will likely be hotter than average globally, with some regions experiencing scorching heatwaves and more natural disasters.
The summer of 2023 has witnessed high temperatures all over the planet resulting from El Niño, a climate pattern that occurs in the Pacific Ocean roughly every 2–7 years. El Niño is characterised by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Oceans. Summer 2024 will suffer from the same reasons as well, especially in July.
All the indices have been indicating these heat waves since April 2024. April was the 11th-consecutive month in a row of record-warmth for the world, according to scientists and data from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.
The average global temperature in April was 2.38 degrees F (1.32 degrees C) above the 20th-century average of 56.7 degrees F (13.7 degrees C), making it the warmest April in the global climate record.
By this, the NCEI’s Global Annual Temperature Rankings Outlook, indicated that there is a 61% chance that 2024 will rank as the warmest year on record and a 100% chance that it will rank in the top five of the warmest years recorded.
Europe’s summer will be hotter than usual, with higher risks of drought and heat waves, the United Nations (UN) warned.
In the UK, the temperature might top 40 °C (104 °F) in the summer of 2022. The UK will experience the same, though thermometers should settle closer to the average by month’s end, according to the Met Office.
Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected in France during the next three months, according to forecaster Meteo France. Spain and Italy are among the countries where above-average temperatures are expected in May, according to Atmospheric G2. Scandinavia is due to have slightly colder than usual temperatures in May.
The weather will accelerate to 50 °C in many countries in the Middle East and North Africa. During June 11–13, 2024, over 290 million people will have experienced extreme heat, which is at least five times more likely because of human-caused climate change, the Climate Centre stated. In Luxor and Aswan in Egypt, the weather has been flaming at 50 °C, resulting in 77 deaths in Aswan. Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf countries have suffered as well. In Saudi Arabia, the death toll from this year’s hajj (pilgrimage) has exceeded 1,000 due to the heatwaves during the El-Adha feast. They were mainly those who were unable to afford a permit to go.
Turkey has seen temperatures 8–12 degrees Celsius above normal, with highs similar to those in Italy and Greece. The abnormality of this heat has triggered a wildfire, forcing the partial suspension of shipping in Turkey’s busy Dardanelle’s Strait for several hours.
Canada didn’t bid farewell to its spring peacefully. Its western part was drowned in a shower of wildfires, which sparked into life after unseasonably warm temperatures and an ongoing drought left forests tinder-dry. Western Canada is in its third year of drought after a winter of meagre snowfall and a warm spring. May tends to be a busy time for wildfires in Alberta because snow has melted but vegetation has not yet had the opportunity to regrow, meaning the landscape can be very dry. Most spring wildfires are accidentally caused by humans, according to the BC Wildfire Service, while fires later in the summer tend to be sparked by lightning.
Excessive heat in Mexico has claimed the lives of at least 125 people this year, as the country is being hit with the first named tropical storm of the year, predicted to be one of the most active hurricane seasons in recorded history. The heat has been so intense that howler monkeys were reported to be falling dead out of their trees.
Much of the Eastern United States has seen temperatures far higher than average for this time of year, with the heat index reaching over 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.7 degrees Celsius) in some places and the National Weather Service predicting major and extreme heat risk for tens of millions of people over the next week.
Deadly heatwaves have also affected Pakistan, India, and larger areas of Southeast Asia. India has had above-average temperatures for over a month, with the nation’s capital, New Delhi, which is home to over 34 million people, recording its highest nighttime temperature in 55 years at 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35.2 degrees Celsius).
Over the previous three and a half months, the intense heat has killed at least 100 people and left 40,000 more suffering from heat stroke.
Droughts, flooding, and oppressive heat have put China’s agriculture and energy supply at jeopardy. In late June of this year, Beijing issued its third-highest heat warning. Thousands of people had to be evacuated as record-breaking rains slammed portions of the south and temperatures in certain parts of the north reached 104 degrees. According to official media, flooding has killed at least fifteen people in the past month in the provinces of Hunan, Anhui, and Guangdong. The government has also issued alerts for further floods nationwide.
Meanwhile, the southern province of Yunnan is going through its worst drought in 60 years, endangering the nation’s hydroelectric and grain supplies.
The U.S. as well didn’t survive the severe flooding as summer started. In several states across the Midwest, public infrastructure and homes were destroyed.
In May, torrential rainfall in the Midwest brought eight times the typical volume of rain seen in the region, overpowering flood defences, submerging homes, and leading to at least two deaths.
Bangladesh witnessed extreme rain and flooding in the last month as well.
The pattern of floods has become more unpredictable. Jason Storah, CEO UK & Ireland General Insurance at Aviva, said: “Flash floods can catch us off guard as they are sudden and harder to predict, so we’d urge people to get ready and take action to protect their homes or businesses. This can mean simple things like moving sentimental items to higher levels or installing flood gates at their properties. As urban areas can be particularly susceptible to flash floods, we’d also encourage people to consider their outside spaces, ideally including permeable materials such as lawn, plants, or softer landscaping materials like gravel to help water drain.”
UN and weather study sources have assured that the weather is continuing to rise in the “warming oceans” issue. It is also part of climate change. For so long, global warming, which is always aligned with anything related to climate change, has never failed to draw down the negative actions done by humans, such as the combustion of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, that inflicted these heat waves.
Warming oceans have become a disputable escalating point. Oceans absorb a large amount of heat from the atmosphere. However, as the planet warms, the oceans are reaching record high temperatures themselves. This means they can’t absorb as much additional heat, leaving more heat in the air to further warm the planet, leading to hotter summers.
As a result, atmospheric and ocean circulation patterns like El Niño will evolve as the Earth warms and will influence storm tracks, floods, severe rain falls, droughts, wildfires, hurricanes, tornadoes, and many other aspects of the weather. Global warming tilts the odds in favour of more warm days and seasons and fewer cold days and seasons.