Mirna Fahmy – Diplomatic Inside

Egypt sending its military aid to Somalia is perplexing several regional concerns in the most conflicted part of Africa, known as the Horn of Africa.

After a military compact between Egypt and Somalia in mid-August 2024, Egypt has finally sent two Egyptian military planes carrying weapons and ammunition to land at Mogadishu airport, the capital of Somalia, on August 29, 2024.

Egypt is supposed to send 10,000 troops to Somalia for this new peacekeeping mission in combat of both the opposition Islamist military movement Al-Shabaab and Ethiopian deployment of interference in the borders under the visible aim of fighting the Al-Shabaab group.

Ongoing civil-conflict in Somalia:

Like Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in South Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza, the Al-Shabaab movement is an Islamist military and political organization that publicly pledged loyalty to al-Qa‘ida in 2012. They have been labelled as “terrorist” by many counter-terrorism organizations like the Counter Terrorism Guide and UN Counter-Terrorism Committee. They are Sunni not Shia, working to overthrow the Somali Federal Government, expel foreign forces from Somalia, and establish a fundamentalist Islamic state. The movement has started a series of civil wars since 2006- till now.

Dubai-based Haleel Commodities L.L.C., also known asHaleel Group,is a key financial facilitator for al-Shabaab, which relies on the leaders of Haleel Group as well as its branches and subsidiaries in Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, and Cyprus to generate and launder funds, according to the US . Department of Treasury. UAE-based Qemat Al Najah General Tradinghas served as an important money laundering node in the network and helped manage and transfer funds for al-Shabaab in connection with Haleel Group. 

Al-Shabaab has conducted targeted and indiscriminate attacks using improvised explosive devices (IEDs), suicide bombings, shelling, and targeted killings, resulting in a high number of civilian casualties, a report about Human Rights in Somalia published by Amnesty International stated. Between February and October 2022, there were 945 civilian casualties (342 killed and 603 injured), with Al-Shabaab responsible for 312 of these.

In August 2022, the government’s military offensive that was launched against Al-Shabaab has led to civilian displacement, further exacerbating the humanitarian situation. Between January and September 2023, Human Rights Watch about Somalia said that 1.5 million people were newly internally displaced, with 40% displaced due to the conflict.

Not only this, but also Amnesty International explained that the conflict has contributed to a dire humanitarian crisis, with nearly 8.25 million people of 19 million, almost half the population, in need of immediate life-saving humanitarian and protection assistance.

Ethiopia military interferences:

From 2006-2009, with the help of the United States, Ethiopia invaded Somalia in 2006 to depose the Islamic Court Union (ICU) from Mogadishu and install the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). Later on, after many peace-making intentions, the Al-Shabaab movement erupted under the same aim of ICU, sparking more conflict. For nearly over a decade, both countries have been combating the threat of Al-Shabaab insurgency. However, their cooperation is seemingly to dismantle as Ethiopia shifts to other political interests.

In January 2024, Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Somaliland, which allows it to lease coastal access for a naval base and commercial port. This deal is seen as a critical move for Ethiopia to diversify its trade routes beyond reliance on Djibouti, which currently handles 95% of its imports and exports. Ethiopia being landlocked has long sought alternative access to maritime routes.

Reports have been waving around suggesting that Ethiopia may consider recognising Somaliland as an independent state in exchange for the maritime deal. Historically, Somalia and Somaliland were one territory until their breakup in 1991. Such recognition would mark a significant shift in regional politics and could embolden separatist sentiments within Somalia, further complicating the relationship between the two nations.

Somalia has viewed Ethiopia’s MoU with Somaliland as a direct threat to its territorial integrity. In response, Somalia expelled the Ethiopian ambassador and closed Ethiopian consulates, accusing Ethiopia of interfering in its internal affairs. This diplomatic rift highlights the heightened tensions between the two countries.

Somalia has accused Ethiopia of meddling in its domestic politics, particularly through engagements with Puntland, a semi-autonomous region that has had a contentious relationship with the central government in Mogadishu. Ethiopia’s interactions with Puntland officials without the federal government’s consent have been perceived as an infringement on Somalia’s sovereignty.

Egypt’s military aid:

Upon the arrival of the Egyptian soldiers on the grounds of Somalia, posts on social media have gone viral among both Egyptians and Somalis of the Egyptian soldiers playing with young children. This has demonstrated how much the Egyptians are enamoured by many African ethnicities. 

It is the first time in 72 years that Egypt would deploy its troops in Africa after the termination of the Kingdom of Egypt. Before the kingdom’s fall-out in 1952,  Sudan, Libya and Chad were part of Egypt until they were granted independence by Egypt’s President Gamal Abdel Nasser.

Many articles and newspapers described Somalia’s decision to import Egyptian weapons and provoke Ethiopia as seen by some as “playing with fire”.

Egypt and Ethiopia are having an escalating bilateral tension since the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River in 2011. Egypt has viewed the dam as a direct threat to its water supply. Despite multiple rounds of negotiations, including a 2019 U.S.-brokered effort, the parties have failed to reach a lasting agreement.

“Reserving a quantity of Blue Nile water this year and completing the construction of the concrete structure of the Ethiopian Dam is considered completely unacceptable to the Egyptian state,” Egypt’s Minister of Foreign Affairs spokesperson announced on a social media statement on September 1, 2024. The announcement added that Egypt is adheringly following the developments and is prepared to take all measures and steps guaranteed under the United Nations Charter to defend its existence and the capabilities and interests of its people.

Egypt’s involvement is seen as part of its efforts to enhance its regional security role and compete with Ethiopia in the Horn of Africa region. The Horn of Africa, also known as the Somali Peninsula, is a large peninsula and geopolitical region in East Africa composed of four countries: Somalia (and Somaliland), Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Eritrea. Somali political experts elaborated that confronting Ethiopia with Egyptian forces will shake Ethiopian military power as it fears

“Egypt helping Somalia rebuild its capacity to defend itself and overcoming Al-Shabaab rebels.”

Some western politicians and Israelis claim that Egypt’s interference in Somalia might incite more regional war.

“All those responsible for preparing and delegating the new peace support mission must take into account the legitimate concerns of countries in the region,” the Foreign Minister of Ethiopia stated. “Forces that attempt to inflame tensions to achieve short-term goals must bear serious consequences, and the country cannot tolerate these actions that threaten the gains achieved.”

Other concerns:

Ethiopia’s lust to comply all Horn of Africa under its wings because the three countries excluding Ethiopia are portal arriving points of Bab-el-Mandeb, meaning Gate of Tears in Arabic, in the Red Sea region connecting to one of the most important marine passing routes, which is the Suez Canal in Egypt. On the other side of the land is Yemen, whereas Houthis, the Islamist rebel militias, are always intercepting ships that pass from Asia to Europe, believing that these cargoes support Israel, and Houthis are backing up Hamas’ war against Israel in Gaza.

“The number of ships that pass through the Suez Canal has diminished more and more because of the Houthi assault,” Vice President of the European Commission Josep Borrell said.

Suez Canal revenue reportedly has dropped more than half since the October 7 attack, fluctuating Egypt’s economy as the canal is part and parcel of the state’s income from foreign currency. Israel has launched many attacks on Houthis in response, destroying their firing bases.

Besides Ethiopia’s political military influence and combat in Somalia, Somaliland, and Djibouti, the landlocked country has been ambushing a series of civil wars on Eritrea refusing to accept Eritrea’s independence that should have been acknowledged in 1993.

Over a decade, the military expenditure in Ethiopia has sharply increased from below 420 USD million in 2012 to 1031.40 USD million in 2022, according to Trading Economics. The United States has significantly contributed to enhancing the military capabilities of Ethiopia over the years. Between 2000 and 2020, the U.S. provided at least 152.7 USD million in security aid to Ethiopia, which included training for approximately 4,000 Ethiopian troops. Much of this assistance was directed towards counterterrorism efforts, particularly concerning threats from Somalia, where Ethiopia has been involved in military operations against Al-Shabaab. Also, participation in international missions, such as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), allows Ethiopia to receive reimbursements from the UN for troop deployment costs. This funding can indirectly support military expenditures.