Mirna Fahmy – Diplomatic Inside

After a year of a deadly civil war in Sudan, many Sudanese are returning to their homeland, raising questions about whether Sudan will seek peace or not.

The war between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) has escalated significantly since the outbreak of conflict in April 2023.

Since the outbreak, the RSF has gained considerable ground in Sudan, particularly in Darfur and Al Jazirah states. By January 2024, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) reported that they had seized control of nearly all of Darfur and strategic areas in central Sudan, inflicting heavy losses on the SAF, which has struggled to maintain its positions. The conflict has resulted in at least 15,500 deaths, with estimates suggesting that up to 150,000 may have died due to ongoing violence.

The fighting has led to a massive humanitarian crisis, displacing over 10 million people internally and pushing millions more into acute hunger, according to the International Rescue Committee (IRC). The report indicates that more than half of Sudan’s population is now in need of humanitarian assistance.

In August 2024, an artillery attack by the RSF on El Fasher resulted in the deaths of at least 15 civilians. This incident underscores the ongoing violence and instability in regions where the RSF operates.

In a recent United Nation (UN) leaked report, it is said that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is providing military aid, financial resources, and logistical support disguised as humanitarian aid to the RSF. The SAF even accused the UAE of providing weapons to its rival paramilitary force and prolonging the 17-month war. The UAE called the allegations “utterly false” and “baseless” and accused the government of refusing to negotiate peace with its enemy. Later, in September of this year, The UAE announced that its diplomatic post was attacked by a Sudanese military aircraft, condemning it as a “heinous attack”.

According to many Sudanese reports, UN analysis and diplomats, the majority of the money earned by RSF chief Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) from the mining of gold in Sudan was moved to Dubai, UAE, through Russia’s Wagner Group, now known as Africa Corps,to enter the global market where he utilised it to finance his paramilitary group. 

During the meeting between Dagalo and Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the ruler of the UAE in February 2022, both discussed Sudanese-Emirati relations and ways to support and enhance them in all fields to serve the aspirations of the peoples of the two countries.  

In December 2022, UAE and Sudan signed a $6 billion investment deal for a new port on the Red Sea coast aimed at facilitating trade. The official Emirati Wam news agency reported that the agreement gave the consortium the “right to develop, manage and operate port and economic zone assets” in Sudan. In that regard, Wam agency labelled Sudan as a “major trading partner” of the UAE, for exporting goods through this new port deal.  

Egypt’s position in this war:

The SAF is considered to have Egypt as its strongest ally. The Wall Street Journal says that Egypt provides military support, including fighter jets and pilots, to the SAF. On February 29, 2024, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi and Sudanese Army Commander Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan met in Cairo to discuss the restoration of stability and the cohesion of the state and institutions in Sudan. Both sides have met several times before. On the contrary, Hemedti has zero meetings or discussions with Egypt’s president.

Recently, in the first week of this month, RSF commander Hemedti accused Egypt of conducting airstrikes against RSF positions. Egypt has denied these allegations, asserting that it is not involved in the conflict. Hemedti’s claims highlight the complex international dimensions of the conflict, with multiple nations reportedly involved or accused of meddling.

The Assistant Commander-in-Chief of the Sudanese Army, Ibrahim Jaber, denied the participation of Egyptian aviation in the Sudan war after Hemedti’s accusations, noting that if Egypt was interfering, the war against the RSF would have terminated immediately.

On Thursday, September 26, 2024, Hemedti stated in a recorded message addressed to the United Nations General Assembly following a speech by Al-Burhan that his forces are ready to implement a nationwide ceasefire in their war against the Sudanese army, as well as allow the delivery of humanitarian aid.

The brutal civil war in Sudan has burdened Egypt, which has been suffering from an unstable economy for quite some time. Egypt has welcomed about 4 million Sudanese since the war, constituting the largest number of “residents and refugees” in the country, according to estimates by the International Organisation for Migration (IOM). The government stated in April 2024 that there are 9 million refugees in the country from the countries that have wars in the Middle East. It is known that Egypt never shuts down the door to those who are in need, especially wars. However, with the several currency flotations, price hikes, and regular inflation, many Egyptians set the chain off on social media complaining about the existence of the refugees, labelling them as a “burden” on the country’s back.

In the past two months, many reports and articles have assured that the SAF has taken control of many cities in Sudan and the capital, Khartoum, diminishing the annex of the RSF. Sources responsible for caring for the Sudanese community in Egypt said that by the end of this October, the number of Sudanese who decided to leave Egypt may reach about 250,000 Sudanese, 45% of whom are concentrated in the Faisal and Al-Haram regions since their arrival in Egypt due to the situation in Sudan.

In September 2024, Egyptian local newspapers reported that the departure of the 90,000 Sudanese has instigated a significant decrease in real estate prices, whether ownership or rent, in the Faisal and Al-Haram areas in Giza Governorate.

Though there are many Sudanese who are finally returning to their homeland after such a killing war, still there isn’t any determined settled future for peace in the country where a strong political system can be established addressing the root causes of conflict and ensuring that all citizens feel represented and valued.

The image might be elusive because when the scene was settled for peace after the fall down of Sudan’s president Omar al-Bashir in 2019, suddenly in 2023, the civil war broke out between two armed forces who were in power since 2019. Many world-wide politicians assured that there must be one armed force in the country fearing a future civil war, but the conflict between the SAF and the RSF continued without any point of dissolvement.