by Oleksandr Melnyk

Russia is waging a war against Ukraine in the forests of Kharkiv region, the steppes of  Kherson region, and among the waste heaps of Donbas. However, the territory of hostilities is not limited to the east and south of Ukraine. In their war against the Ukrainians, the Russians use not only missiles and adjusted aerial bombs, tanks and artillery.

The information front is no less important to the Kremlin, and huge funds are allocated to fight it. The draft budget 2025 allocates 137,200,000,000 rubles ($1.42 billion) for state propaganda. Compared to 2024, media spending will increase by 15.9 billion rubles, or 13%, and its total amount will exceed the annual budgets of average Russian regions (for example, 135 billion rubles in Kaliningrad region, 110 billion rubles in Perm region).

Moscow seeks to discredit the Ukrainian military and political leadership in the eyes of Russians and the international community, undermine the trust of Western, African, Latin American and Asian leaders, split the Ukrainian elite and demoralise Ukrainians.

According to information received based on anonymity from informed sources familiar with Russian hybrid activity abroad, Russian information operations aimed at discrediting the President of Ukraine, the leadership of the Office of the President of Ukraine, and other representatives of the military and political leadership of Ukraine are currently intensifying. Against the backdrop of the failure of the so-called ‘Special military operation’ to achieve its goals on the battlefield, the Russian propaganda machine under the leadership of Sergey Kiriyenko is planning to launch a large-scale anti-Ukrainian information campaign in the near future to fabricate and disseminate manipulative messages and outright lies about the alleged ‘illegitimacy of the Ukrainian leadership’, its ‘lack of negotiating skills and desire to fight to the last Ukrainian’, ‘tolerating Nazism’ and ‘supporting international terrorism’, ‘total corruption in the government’, ‘inefficient use of Western aid’, etc.

Already today, we can observe the emergence of publications in some media that play into the hands of Russian propaganda, which indicates that Russia is beginning to measure the target audience’s reaction to a particular narrative to determine the most reactionary topics.

The campaign is predicted to culminate on the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration and in the first months after he officially takes office. The intensification of propaganda efforts is associated with an attempt to prevent the establishment of a constructive dialogue between Ukraine and the new US presidential administration to prevent the end of the war on terms unfavourable to Russia.

The Kremlin plans to use its capabilities among opposition Ukrainian politicians, experts and journalists to provoke statements critical of Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his team, which will sound in unison with Russian propaganda narratives, sow discord in Ukrainian society and allow Russian propaganda to speculate in Western media on the topic of a ‘political crisis’ in Ukraine.

At the same time, we cannot rule out a scenario in which Russian special services may resort to radical actions, including assassination attempts on Ukrainian opposition figures, aimed at provoking and inciting Ukrainian society to protest.

The main goal of Russian information and psychological operations is to create an image of the Ukrainian leadership as incompetent, corrupt and incapable of effective governance. That is why in recent months, Russian propagandists have been trying to spread such ‘news’ as ‘the refusal to hold elections made the Kyiv authorities illegitimate’, ‘the Ukrainian nation may disappear completely’, ‘Zelenskyy bought a hotel in Courchevel for 88 million euros’, ‘the son of the former Ukrainian Foreign Minister bought the iron throne from Game of Thrones’…

The highest levels of the Russian government, which are involved in managing the Kremlin’s disinformation activities in the foreign information space, were investigated in detail by The Washington Post in February 2024.

According to The Washington Post, the main curator of such campaigns is First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Russian Presidential Administration Sergey Kiriyenko, who is close to Vladimir Putin. Two disinformation groups were created under his leadership.

The campaign focused on destabilising the situation inside Ukraine was led by one of Kiriyenko’s closest associates, the head of the Russian Presidential Directorate for Monitoring and Analysis of Social Processes, Alexander Kharichev. The group aimed at undermining support for Ukraine in Western countries was headed by Tatyana Matveyeva, head of the Russian Presidential Department for the Development of Information and Communication Technologies and Communications Infrastructure.

According to our interlocutor, in addition to these individuals, an autonomous non-profit organisation for the development of digital projects in the field of public relations and communications “Dialogue”, Artemiy Lebedev Studio, individual Russian specialists in psychological operations, media professionals, PR specialists and pro-government bloggers are actively involved in the implementation of the campaign to discredit Ukraine’s top military and political leadership, including the creation of media content and its dissemination in the media and social networks under the general coordination of S.Kiriyenko.

The autonomous non-profit organisation “Dialog” is a structure created in 2019 formally to speed up the resolution of issues that people address to the authorities. It is engaged in the production and dissemination of fake news and disinformation about Russia’s aggressive war against Ukraine to support Kremlin propaganda and is responsible for managing the social media accounts of many Russian government agencies, municipal educational institutions and propagandists (such as V.Solovyov).

After the treacherous full-scale invasion in 2022, the “Dialogue” began analysing how social media reacted to war-related news and making recommendations to the Russian Ministry of Defence on how to respond to high-profile events.

The “Dialog” is responsible for spreading many fakes, including the information that the Ukrainian military allegedly started selling their awards on eBay, about the Swiss real estate of high-ranking Ukrainian officials, about ‘humiliating’ jobs offered to Ukrainian refugees in Poland, about the alleged start of women’s mobilisation in Ukraine, about the Ukrainian military being given pills that increase aggression, etc. Among other things, “Dialog” also disseminated posts criticising the head of the “Wagner Group” PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who conflicted with the Russian Ministry of Defence.

On 28 July 2023, the “Dialogue” was included in the EU sanctions list for spreading disinformation and propaganda in support of Russia’s war against Ukraine. On September 4, 2024, the “Dialogue” and its director, Volodymyr Tabak, were included in the US sanctions list for ‘harmful influence’ on the 2024 presidential election.

Vladimir Tabak himself became famous in 2010, after the release of a scandalous calendar with photos of Moscow State University students in their underwear, which was dedicated to Vladimir Putin’s 58th birthday. He then became an active participant in the projects of the then Deputy Head of the Russian Presidential Administration Vladislav Surkov. After his resignation, the role of Tabak’s patron was taken over by Sergei Kiriyenko, the first deputy head of the Russian Presidential Administration. It was under Kiriyenko that Tabak became the head of the Dialogue.

The role of Artemiy Lebedev’s Studio in the campaign to discredit Ukraine is more uncertain. Lebedev’s creative agencies are likely involved in the creation of texts and visuals that accompany the information component.

Lebedev himself has gained a reputation as the most famous web designer and the main troll of the Russian Internet. However, since the annexation of Crimea and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, his rhetoric has become increasingly synchronised with the Russian propaganda machine.

Accusations that Artemy Lebedev’s Studio is hiding large government contracts, in addition to numerous contracts for rebranding Russian cities, the Moscow metro or the National Guard of Russia, have been levelled at the designer since Alexei Navalny.

Lebedev is also the founder of the online advertising agency “Reklamation.ru”, and since October 2023, he has been the design director of the social network “VKontakte” (meaning InContact), where he is allegedly responsible for “managing the design of social network products and forming approaches to working on user interfaces”, as well as developing “a general vision of the social network’s design”.

After his appointment, rumours circulated in “VKontakte”, which has long been a state-owned asset fully controlled by the Federal Security Service of Russia, that the people who decided to appoint Lebedev were above the CEO of “VKontakte Holding”, Vladimir Kiriyenko (son of the First Deputy Head of the Russian Presidential Administration, Sergey Kiriyenko) and the 29-year-old head of “VKontakte”, Stepan Kovalchuk.

Lebedev actively supports Putin and the war he has waged against Ukraine. He has repeatedly travelled to Russia-occupied Crimea and the territories of Donbas not controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.

In 2020, Artemiy took part in the filming of a propaganda video about amendments to the Russian Constitution for the Russia Today TV channel, and in July 2021, he became the host of the said propaganda media outlet.

Lebedev’s work for the Russian presidential administration is not limited to his public activities. Back in 2020, he received a medal of the Order of Merit for the Motherland, second class, for his services to the formation and development of the Russian segment of the Internet information and telecommunications network.

In an attempt to achieve their goal, the Kremlin and Russian propagandists use several methods of working with international media articles. First, they take phrases out of context. Secondly, they make manipulative interpretations, distorting the meaning of publications. Third, they shift the emphasis when critical analysis or commentary turns into outright accusations. Fourth, they fabricate fakes based on real Western publications.

In the world created by Russian propagandists, Foreign Policy’s article about Ukraine’s exhaustion due to the war is presented as a call from the West to the Ukrainian leadership to end the ‘senseless war’. Newsweek’s articles about the lack of personnel are presented as ‘a willingness to fight to the last Ukrainian’. The Spectator’s analysis of the challenges of corruption in Ukraine is being turned into ‘evidence’ of the need to stop supporting Ukraine.

In December 2022, the Washington Post published an analytical piece on the challenges facing Zelenskyy, including internal debates throughout the war. The article focused on the complexity of the decisions the president faces in the face of external pressure. However, Russian propaganda used this material to portray Zelenskyy as a ‘puppet of the West’ who allegedly acts to the detriment of Ukraine’s interests. Headlines on Russian websites such as Russia Today and “Vzglyad” (meaning “Glance”) claimed that ‘The West is disappointed with Zelenskyy’ and ‘Zelenskyy is not coping with running the country’. At the same time, the context indicating the support of the international community was completely ignored.

Western media often cover conflicts within Ukraine’s military and political leadership. For example, Western media have reported on tensions between military and political leaders over the distribution of resources. Often, the articles are aimed at analysing democratic processes in wartime. But Russian media present them as a ‘split between the army and the government’. And if earlier it was a ‘split’ between President Zelenskyy and former Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyy, now it is between Zelenskyy and current Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyy.

This interpretation is aimed at undermining the trust of Ukrainian society in its leaders. The Russian media widely circulated allegations of ‘chaos at the top’, which, according to their plan, was intended to demoralise both Ukrainian citizens and military personnel.

But most importantly, by manipulating Western media publications, narratives aimed at Ukraine’s allies are created. The goal is to sow doubts about the competence of Ukrainian leaders and demonstrate the decline in Western support.

Russian media often distort the actual statements of Western leaders to support their thesis of ‘Ukraine’s insolvency’ or ‘the depletion of Western support’. For example, in January 2023, Russian media actively quoted Die Welt, which discussed delays in arms supplies. These materials were accompanied by manipulative conclusions that ‘the West is tired of Zelenskyy’.

To promote propaganda narratives that discredit the Ukrainian leadership, the Kremlin is willing to pay large sums of money to place pro-Russian comments in well-known Western media and to pay for the efforts of those ‘influencers’ in US and European social media who were willing to work with Russian clients. For example, The Washington Post reports that Russians were willing to pay up to $39,000 to place pro-Russian comments in leading Western media.

By using distorted quotes, false narratives and pseudo-analysis, Russian propaganda skilfully creates the illusion of international legitimacy for its messages. However, this approach also reveals its weaknesses – its reliance on manipulation and falsification instead of real support or arguments.

Exposing such campaigns and consolidating the efforts of free media remain the main tools to counter this flow of disinformation. The issue is not only about protecting Ukraine but also about preserving global democratic values, which are also becoming the targets of Russia’s information operations. While Russia’s armed aggression is currently being waged against Ukraine, Russia’s hybrid war, using information and psychological operations, foreign interference and information manipulation, is being waged against the entire civilised world, causing political and social tensions and threatening the existence of Western democracies.