By Mirna Fahmy

South Korea is currently embroiled in a deepening political crisis that began with President Yoon Suk-yeol’s declaration of martial law.

South Korean right-wing ­President Yoon Suk-yeol’s declaration of martial law on December 3, 2024, spreading the military power across the country and suspending the ordinary law, has cited threats to democratic institutions. He accused the opposition Democratic Party of colluding with North Korea and undermining democracy. However, he retracted the declaration shortly after due to intense opposition.

Following the martial law debacle, the National Assembly voted to impeach President Yoon on December 14, 2024. The vote was successful with over two-thirds majority, effectively suspending Yoon from his duties and transferring power to Prime Minister Han Duck-soo.

It didn’t last long for Prime Minister Han Duck-soo to stay as an acting president. He faced impeachment proceedings himself on December 24, 2024. He was then replaced by Choi Sang-mok on December 27, 2024.

Yoon was formally arrested on January 15, 2025, and later indicted on January 26, 2025, for rebellion related to his martial law declaration. This makes him the first South Korean president to be indicted while in office.

The Constitutional Court is currently reviewing Yoon’s impeachment to decide whether he should be permanently removed or reinstated. The court has six months to make a decision.

Fate of President Yoon Suk-yeol:

President Yoon Suk-yeol is currently in detention and facing trial for rebellion. If convicted, he could face severe penalties, including life imprisonment or the death penalty.

The Constitutional Court’s ruling will determine whether Yoon is officially removed from office or reinstated. If removed, a presidential election must be held within 60 days.

The crisis has polarized the country, with both pro-Yoon and anti-Yoon protests. The situation has also affected South Korea’s economy and international relations, with concerns raised by global partners about the stability of the region.

The main reason:

Pro-North or anti-state forces aren’t the real announced reasons, but there are more behind it. Yoon faced significant opposition from the Left Democratic Party of Korea, which controlled the National Assembly. This led to a stalemate over key legislative issues, including budget bills and impeachment proceedings against his officials. It has been explained by many political analysts that Yoon’s real aim was an attempt to assert control over a politically divided nation, which ultimately backfired and led to his impeachment and indictment.

It was seen by many as another attempt to counteract his declining influence. That’s because Yoon’s approval ratings had plummeted, and he was facing intense political pressure.

Economic and Geopolitical Implications:

The political instability has led to a downgrade in South Korea’s economic growth forecast for 2025, reduced foreign investment, and a weakened currency.

The crisis could heighten tensions with North Korea and impact regional security dynamics, particularly with the involvement of the U.S., China, and Japan.

The political crisis in South Korea is multifaceted, involving historical, economic, and geopolitical factors behind the current situation.

Historical Context and Political Polarization:

South Korea has a history of authoritarian rule, transitioning to a liberal democracy only in 1988. This legacy continues to influence its politics, with remnants of authoritarianism still present in institutions like the prosecution office.

The country is deeply polarized, with a “revenge cycle” between rival wings of the ruling class contributing to political instability.

Economic Challenges:

South Korea’s economy is facing challenges due to global economic shifts, particularly the rise of China. This has exacerbated economic problems and political polarization.

Also, the country is heavily dependent on exports, with its two main trading partners (the U.S. and China) often in conflict. This poses significant economic contradictions and challenges for the country.

Geopolitical Factors:

There is another sort of crisis that is driven by geopolitical tensions, including North Korea’s military provocations and its recent declaration of South Korea as its “principal enemy”. This has heightened security concerns and contributed to political instability.

The country’s longest and sticky alliance since its independence from Japan, has led to pressures to align with U.S. policies, further complicating its relations with North Korea and China.

Leadership Crisis:

The current leadership crisis, including President Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment and legal troubles, has created a power vacuum. This has paralyzed government functions and exacerbated political instability.  Since the 1988 liberal ruling, the country hasn’t seen any stable political ruling unless bribing, corruption and impeachment is included.

Widespread public discontent with political leadership, fueled by corruption scandals and perceived inefficiencies, has contributed to the crisis. Large-scale protests have become common, reflecting deep dissatisfaction with the political system.

Protests of South Koreans have been known as unique and calm unlike any other protests in the world. They would march in organized crowds with lit candles and put on their favorite Korean songs with their banners held written in it their discontent.

Population consequences:

South Korea’s total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen to as low as 0.72 children per woman in 2023, which is the lowest among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

(OECD) countries.

The birth rate per 1,000 people is approximately 6.717 in 2025, a 0.39% decline from 2024, reflecting a continuous decline over recent years, according to Macro-trends.

Reasons for low birth rate are varied and draining. The cost of housing and education is extremely high in South Korea, making it difficult for families to afford raising children.

Long working hours and societal expectations make it challenging for parents to balance work and family responsibilities.

Women often face significant career setbacks after childbirth, discouraging them from having more children.

Like Japan, the aging population is rapidly growing in South Korea. The World Population Review is indicating that nearly half of the population will be over 65 by 2065. This demographic shift worsens the economic and social challenges associated with low fertility rates.

Traditional societal pressures and expectations around education and career success contribute to delayed marriages and fewer children.

The South Korean government has implemented various policies to address the low birth rate, including increasing parental leave allowances, improving work-life balance, and providing financial support for families. Despite these efforts, the birth rate remains critically low, posing significant long-term challenges for the country’s economy and society.