Brian Sokutu
So rapid is the decline of the African National Congress (ANC), that a leading political analyst has predicted that the party, which championed the downfall of apartheid in South Africa decades ago, is headed for a mere 25% overall win in the upcoming 2026 local government polls.
Against a background of deterioration in governance, high levels of corruption in the three spheres of government, factionalism and poor service delivery – factors which have adversely dented the ANC’s public image since taking over the reins from the National Party three decades ago – Sandile Swana has maintained that the party faced punishment by voters.
Swana referred to what he described as “the mess in the Free State” where the ANC was forced to remove mayors and speakers in seven municipalities.
He was convinced that the trend would follow in other poor-performing municipalities.
“There is not one province where the ANC is performing well.
“In looking at the trend from 2009 to 2021, the ANC voter support has been significantly dropping – reaching 45% in 2021 and 40% in 2024,” said Swana.
In a clear indication of a major drop in the ANC’s voter support since Nelson Mandela’s historic landslide victory in the country’s first democratic elections in1994, the once revered liberation movement, for the first time lost its outright majority in the 2024 national polls – scraping a mere 40%.
The party has been left with no option other than forming a coalition government with political opponents the Democratic Alliance (DA), Inkatha Freedom Party and other smaller parties, in what has become the government of national unity (GNU).
While the GNU has been hailed by business as the governance model to lead to South Africa’s socio-economic revival, it has exposed the ANC for its governance weaknesses.
A latest study by the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection has found that:
Ø Party politics and relentless office-seeking dominated coalitions – undermining the coalition governments’ functionality at all levels.
Ø Coalition government performance at all levels was marked by constrained state capacity, failure of public policy and service delivery programmes to meet people’s demands.
Ø The GNU experienced “a serial crisis of policy”, marked by endemic acrimony between the ANC and the DA, while the other eight parties in the GNU participated in a low-key manner with no demands.
The chaotic state of most ANC-run municipalities, has continued to haunt the party, with traditional black voters drifting away – finding new alternatives, which have included Jacob Zuma’s Umkhonto we Sizwe Party, Julius Malema’s EFF and Gayton McKenzie’s Patriotic Alliance.
ANC’s governance weaknesses have included:
Ø The Auditor General’s report, which found over R4.2 billion in unauthorised expenditure, repeated disclaimer audit opinion, and failure to submit financial statements in the Free State – despite these, consequence management remaining a dream.
Ø The South Aftican Human Rights Commission scoring Free State municipalities zero on service delivery.
Ø In 2022, retired Lt-General, Godfrey Lebeya, former Hawks head reporting at least 44 cases of corruption and fraud were under investigation across all 16 municipalities in Free State.
The Free State has become a microcosm of a bigger governance problem of the ANC – mirroring a far wider challenge, threatening the existence of the party.
Amid rampant poverty, a high unemployment rate, declining basic public services, closure of factories in Gauteng and the Eastern Cape and a stagnant economy – further compounded by US tariff trade sanctions – SA is facing a crisis.
President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC has been morally shaken by recent revelations made by KwaZulu-Natal Police Commissioner Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi who has dropped a bombshell, alleging that Police Minister Senzo Mchunu and deputy National Police Commissioner, Crime Detection, Shadrack Sibiya, interfered in investigations – with Mchunu also accused of links to drug cartels.
The matter, which is under investigation by a judicial commission of inquiry and by Parliament, is set to further erode the ANC voter support and trust, with the electorate seeing party leaders as “corrupt”.
While Ramaphosa is serving his last term as party leader and the country’s president, it is unclear who is set to succeed him, should the ANC lose more votes in upcoming elections.