By Thobile Jiwulane
Tariff negotiations between South Africa and the United States appear to be entering a more constructive phase, moving away from combative social media exchanges and Oval Office tensions.
Senior officials from both countries are now engaging in direct discussions, raising hopes for a potential meeting between South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and U.S. President Donald Trump. Ramaphosa hinted at such a possibility during a recent interview with the South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC).
While no official confirmation has been issued, President Cyril Ramaphosa struck an optimistic tone regarding the anticipated direct engagement with his U.S. counterpart. He stopped short of revealing when the meeting might occur or outlining South Africa’s expectations.
South Africa’s Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition, Parks Tau, led a high-level delegation to Washington, D.C. and the United Nations headquarters this week, spending several days in direct engagement with senior U.S. trade officials. Acting on Ramaphosa’s directive, the delegation also sought meetings with members of Congress to bolster South Africa’s position in ongoing tariff negotiations.
While Trump is known for his centralized leadership style, members of Congress continue to wield significant influence over U.S. trade policy. Tau is hoping to leverage that influence to secure a more favorable hearing for South Africa.
During the visit, Minister held formal talks with U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer, describing the meeting as “cordial and constructive.” The discussions followed three days of intensive negotiations between senior officials from both countries, who agreed that the issues at hand should be prioritized. No specific details were released.
Tau expressed appreciation for Greer’s openness and willingness to engage, stating: “Both parties agreed to a roadmap that will inform future engagements towards the conclusion of the process. I will be briefing President Ramaphosa on the outcomes of the discussions and will then engage various stakeholders.”
The United States remains a vital trade and investment partner for South Africa, with bilateral trade reaching US$15.1 billion in 2024. South African exports to the U.S. totalled US$8.2 billion, while imports from the U.S. stood at US$6.9 billion. More than 600 American companies currently operate in South Africa, alongside over 22 South African firms with a footprint in the United States.
Amid growing speculation, sources in Pretoria suggest that a trade deal may be imminent — potentially taking shape on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) high-level debate, scheduled for September 23–29 in New York. Preliminary sessions of the Assembly commenced on September 9.
Ramaphosa has confirmed his attendance at the upcoming UNGA debate, where he is expected to engage in talks with U.S. officials and hold bilateral meetings with other world leaders. He also hinted at a possible visit to Washington to meet with Trump — not only to finalize outstanding trade matters but to personally invite him to attend the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, this November.
The South African leader expressed his desire to hand over the G20 presidency directly to Trump, stating that “it would be their responsibility” in the next term. Trump had earlier said he would send Vice President JD Vance.
Together with Tau, Ramaphosa is making a final push to secure a trade agreement aimed at reducing the 30% tariff hike imposed by the Trump administration on South African imports. Some speculation suggests the tariff could be lowered to between 25% and 20%, while more optimistic projections place the figure between 15% and 10%. Any reduction would offer much-needed relief for Pretoria and signal a thaw in bilateral trade relations.
However, skepticism remains among opposition parties and several South African analysts, who fear that President Trump may remain unyielding on the issue. Some suggest he is still likely to press Pretoria for significant concessions.
According to critics, the U.S. President appears intent on securing significant concessions from President Ramaphosa — including pressure to dilute South Africa’s Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) policy, which mandates 30% equity ownership for historically disadvantaged groups in telecoms licensing. Thus far, Pretoria has shown a willingness to consider revised Equity Equivalent Investment Programmes (EEPs) as an alternative to direct ownership, though no final agreement has been reached.
However, the African National Congress (ANC) — once the ruling party for 30 years from 1994, and now the largest member of South Africa’s multiparty Government of National Unity (GNU) — remains divided over how best to balance domestic priorities with U.S. demands. Internal debates continue over which policy concessions, if any, should be made to advance negotiations.
The ANC-led Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Communications and Digital Technology maintains that the EEPs proposal undermines the transformative goals essential to addressing the legacy of apartheid. Chaired by Khusela Diko, a former aide to President Ramaphosa, the committee firmly asserts that the empowerment provisions — including the 30% equity requirement outlined in the Electronic Communications Act 36 of 2005 — are non-negotiable. Any deviation, they argue, would compromise the ANC’s broader socio-economic transformation agenda, which seeks to advance racial equity and inclusive growth.
Ramaphosa and his trade minister find themselves in a difficult position as they race against time to secure a trade deal with the United States. Their concern is that failure to reach an agreement could trigger significant economic fallout, including potential job losses, if the Trump administration were to push for the withdrawal of the more than 600 U.S. companies currently operating in South Africa.
This fear is compounded by the widespread belief that even South Africa’s close allies — China and Russia, would struggle to fill the economic void left by a U.S. exit. However, some commentators, such as Johannesburg-based independent analyst Sandile Swana, argue that South Africa could weather the storm with China’s support. China remains South Africa’s largest trading partner, while Russia continues to be a key political ally.
Should disinvestment or increased tariffs materialize, South Africa’s automotive and agricultural sectors would be among the hardest hit. Vehicle manufacturers in Gauteng — particularly in Pretoria — and in the Eastern Cape cities of East London and Gqeberha face immediate risk of job cuts.
The Mercedes-Benz plant in East London, which produces left-hand drive sedans specifically for the U.S. market, is already feeling the strain of rising tariffs. Meanwhile, several related industries in Gqeberha have shut down or relocated. The Eastern Cape, South Africa’s poorest province, also bears the country’s highest unemployment rate — making the potential impact of trade disruption especially severe.
After losing the first round in May to convince Trump, Ramaphosa has reinforced his team this time around. He said Tau’s team to the US includes “my key adviser” who the President did not name. But it is public knowledge that he was referring to his newly appointed adviser on investment promotion, Alistair Ruiters.
Ruiters was brought in following the rejection of Ramaphosa’s previous special envoy to the Americas, Mcebisi Jonas, who had been tasked with mending strained South African–U.S. relations but was denied a diplomatic visa by the Trump administration.
Ramaphosa is now seeking to reset the relationship after a period of heightened tensions, which peaked during a televised confrontation between the two leaders in the Oval Office on May 21. During that exchange, Trump made the unfounded claim that South Africa was violating the human rights of the minority white Afrikaner population — a group he subsequently offered refugee status in the United States.
Whether a deal will be reached by the end of next week remains uncertain. However, optimism among South African officials, including Ramaphosa and Tau, is running high. Their confidence coincides with a thaw in U.S.–India relations, as Trump signals renewed willingness to engage New Delhi, despite having previously imposed a steep 50% tariff on the Asian ally.
Trump appears to be softening his hardline approach toward both India and South Africa — two of five founding members of BRICS, the economic bloc representing emerging markets. Analysts suggest the U.S. President is wary of alienating the two nations, fearing they could drift further into China’s orbit. Beijing has been actively courting both, offering peace and trade deals to India and extending tariff-free trade to 52 of Africa’s 53 countries — with Eswatini as the lone exception due to its continued diplomatic ties with Taiwan.
Eswatini’s stance defies the One-China Policy adopted by the United Nations in the 1970s, a position supported by the U.S. and most Western nations. China’s exclusion of Eswatini underscores its strategic efforts to consolidate influence across the continent.
Meanwhile, Trump has intensified efforts to pull India and South Africa away from BRICS, using threats of sanctions and tariff hikes as leverage. India, however, recently rebuffed Washington’s pressure and moved to repair its relationship with Beijing — prompting Trump to invite Prime Minister Narendra Modi for renewed talks. Like India, South Africa is seen as a critical piece in the geopolitical chess match between the U.S. and China, with both superpowers vying for strategic dominance.