A Russian diplomat has suggested that recent drone incursions into Turkish airspace may have been a “possible provocation,” marking first comment from a Russian official about a series of incidents that raised concerns in Turkey over air defense and spillover risks from the war in Ukraine.
The Cumhuriyet daily cited the anonymous official, whom it described as a senior diplomat, as saying that the incidents “could be an attempt at provocation” while stressing that Russia maintains good relations with Turkey. The diplomat did not specify who might be behind such a provocation.
The comments follow three separate drone incidents in December in which unmanned aerial vehicles entered Turkish airspace or were found crashed inside the country.
The first incident occurred on December 15, when Turkey’s defense ministry said an unidentified drone entering Turkish airspace from the Black Sea was shot down by F-16 fighter jets using an AIM-9X Sidewinder missile over central Turkey.
Two days later, residents of the village of Çubuklubala in the northwestern province of Kocaeli found the wreckage of a drone bearing red star markings. The interior ministry later identified it as a Russian-made Orlan-10 reconnaissance drone.
A third drone, identified as a Russian-origin Merlin-VR surveillance platform, was discovered on December 20 in Balıkesir’s Manyas district. Authorities said the wreckage had likely been on the ground for several days before being found.
Defense analyst Arda Mevlütoğlu wrote in an analysis that all three drones came down near strategically sensitive sites. These included areas close to Roketsan, Turkey’s main missile and rocket manufacturer, and the state-owned arms producer MKEK near Ankara; the Gölcük Naval Base and oil refineries in Kocaeli; and the Balıkesir and Bandırma air bases, which host F-16 fighter jets.
Mevlütoğlu warned that the incidents could point to “false flag” scenarios, operations designed to appear as though they were carried out by another party in order to trigger a crisis or escalate tensions. He wrote that such actions could be intended to test Turkey’s response thresholds, military preparedness or political positioning.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has repeatedly warned against the Black Sea becoming an “area of confrontation” between Russia and Ukraine, both of which border the sea opposite Turkey.
The drone incidents have renewed debate over Turkey’s air defense posture. Mevlütoğlu claimed that Turkey’s multilayered air defense system, known as “Steel Dome,” provides credible capability against such threats but said the incursions may have been aimed at probing Turkey’s reflexes rather than causing direct damage.
Turkish Minute