Mirna Fahmy-Diplomatic Inside
How will the new rule be under HTS and what are the efforts for Syrians to return?
The fallout of the Bashar al-Assad regime has been applauded by many Syrians across the globe and many Western leaders. The rise of an ISIS former member named Abu Mohammad al-Julani, who is the leader of the major rebel group in Syria, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), taking over Syria after toppling the Assad regime, is still in a quandary.
The 10-million US dollar wanted al-Julani hasn’t been removed from the wanted list by the US. He has been demonstrating how modern he is through his new look and clothes. Despite that, HTS is still labelled as a terrorist organisation by multiple entities, including the United States (US), the United Nations (UN), the European Union (EU), and the United Kingdom (UK). This designation stems from his historical ties to al-Qaeda and its violent actions during the Syrian civil war.
The UK’s Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, has not yet made a decision to remove HTS from a list of banned terrorist groups. He even claimed it to be “too early” to do so. A couple of days ago, a British delegation from the UK’s foreign ministry went to Damascus, Syria, to overview the latest circumstances in Syria with al-Julani.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken expressed his support for the Syrians after the fall of the Assad regime, but he stated four conditions for recognising the new authority in Syria. First, it is fully respecting the rights of minorities. Facilitating the flow of humanitarian aid to all those in need is also a priority. It is crucial to prevent the use of Syria as a base for terrorism or to threaten its neighbors. Finally, ensuring that any stockpiles of chemical or biological weapons are secured and safely destroyed.
Manifestations of al-Julani’s rule up till now:
Al-Julani has stated that he is not interested in becoming president unless the Syrians ask him to become one or those around him. Yet he appointed a transitional government whose prime minister will take the teachings of the Muslim Brotherhood’s founder, Hassan al-Bana, as a guide in his ruling.
So far, he has announced several points that he will take in the coming days via the HTS Telegram channel. He pledged to dissolve all factions and let there be no weapons except in the hands of the state. He added that the government is considering raising salaries by 400% and producing new currency. He will abolish compulsory conscription in the army, except for some specialisations and for “short periods.” He promised to give the Syrian nationality to foreign soldiers who fought alongside him in HTS.
He said that the coming period will witness the making of important economic decisions, noting that the first priority is to rebuild demolished homes and return the displaced from the last tent.
He stressed that Syria is in need of development plans to ensure food security and the evolution of the industrial sector.
Regardless of his western modern look, there are signs in one of his speeches and behaviours that he would still stick to applying Sharia law at some points. In 2023, he stressed in a conference that there will be penalties for people if they deviate from legal manners that go with Sharia law without copying the same strict rules of the Commission for the Promotion of Virtue in Saudi Arabia that involves cane beating.
Al-Julani never accepts to meet any woman unless they cover their hair like exactly what happened with CNN’s interviewer Jomana Karadsheh and another Syrian girl who wanted to have a photo with him, but he refuses unless she puts something on her head. This has provoked many social media users, saying that’s what will happen even in an extreme way if HTS, the Islamist rebel, took over.
In a recent interview with al-Julani at BBC News in English, “I believe in women’s right to education.” For alcohol, he said that “this is not my decision, but rather the decision of the legislators who make the laws and the president of the state implements those laws.” He insisted that Syria will not be like Afghanistan and the world shall remove the sanctions on Syria.
The official spokesman for the Political Department of the HTS, Obaida Arnaout, said in a video that a woman’s biological and psychological nature is not compatible with all jobs in the state, such as the Ministry of Defense. He continued that it is still too early to talk about her work in the field of the judiciary, and it will be left to the specialists and constitutional jurists who are working to reconsider the form of the new state and the determinants that will be set for women’s work (as an important and honoured element) and the need for the tasks assigned to them to be appropriate to their biological nature.
In Umayyad Square in Damascus, hundreds of Syrians demanded on Thursday the establishment of a democratic civil state and the involvement of women in building the new Syria. Near the famous Damascene Sword monument, men and women of different ages gathered, chanting several slogans, including: “The religion is for God, and the homeland is for everyone.” Some of them carried banners demanding a “state of citizenship and law” and “secularism.”
Celebrating the new regime in Syria, Al-Baath University in Homs became known as Khalid ibn Al-Walid University a couple of days ago, and many people prayed the Friday prayer in the University of Damascus.
Another point that has stirred the social media and the Arabic media is a photo of al-Julani and two other men. On the right is Mahmoud Fathy, an Egyptian, who has been categorised by the Egyptian authorities as a “terrorist” for being responsible for bombing and killing the car of the Public Prosecutor of Egypt, Hisham Barakat, in 2015. Fathy was even sentenced to death, but he fled before the sentence was executed. The other man on the left is the Turkish Justice and Development Party’s foreign relations advisor, Yasin Aktay.
Egyptians on social media fear that the new Syrian government will shelter the runaways from the law, especially if they are related to the ousted one-year ruling of the Muslim Brotherhood.
The Egyptian famous media figure Ibrahim Eissa said that al-Julani’s family is living in the Sixth of October district in Cairo, Egypt, calling for their expulsion.
Egypt’s opinion on what’s happening in Syria:
Through official statements, Egypt has called for adopting a comprehensive political process in Syria without foreign interference. It even voiced the importance of Syria’s unity and stability in the region.
During the incidents in Syria, Egypt’s military spokesman assured that they were ready to confront any developments occurring at the regional and international levels.
When the HTS movement erupted as “rebels” in Syria, swirling chaos in many Syrian cities, many Syrians started posting on social media asking for ways to travel to Egypt and open their projects in the country. This has infuriated many Egyptians on social media because whenever any chaos happens in any Arab country, refugees dash into Egypt, a country that has never seen any economic stability.
According to the Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Kamal Madbouly at the World Economic Forum in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, this year, the number of refugees in Egypt is around 9 million. This is quite a number, along with the rising population that hit 100 million.
Before the recent chaos in Syria, the Egyptian parliament agreed on a law permitting all rights to the refugees in the country as regular citizens along with removing 761 individuals from the terrorist list.
In response to recent developments in Syria, Egypt has introduced new entry requirements for Syrians. Syrians with European, American, Canadian, or Gulf residency are required to obtain Egyptian visas before they enter the country.
West no longer accepts Syrians:
Many European countries started freezing many Syrian applications. These countries are Germany, France, Italy, the UK, the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway, Czechia, Switzerland, Croatia, and Greece.
Unexpectedly, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said, “We are ready for dialogue with the new government of Syria.”
Vienna has offered 1000 euros for Syrians to return to their country, and Denmark has offered €27,000 to Syrian refugees for voluntary return to Syria, plus €6,700 per child, under a repatriation program. Germany might suffer a bit of a labour shortage in the medical service after the departure of 10 thousand doctors and nurses.
Israel’s relations:
Vasily Nebenzia, Russia’s delegate to the Security Council, says that Israeli forces are 20 kilometres from Damascus. Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a statement that Israel has no interest in a confrontation with Syria.
Al-Julani made it clear that they won’t make Syria a ground base to attack Israel. Some Israelis described al-Julani as a “dictator,” referring to the fact that there will be no difference from Assad’s regime.
The Times of Israel quoted an official saying that Tel Aviv does not communicate directly with HTS. The official said that they are transmitting messages through different parties. The official added that if Israel sees that the Druze in Syria are in danger, “it will examine the matter and act in accordance with Israel’s interests.” Regarding the Kurds in Syria, the official said that it is in Israel’s interest “for the Kurds to be strong and independent,” adding that the government is speaking with American officials about developments in Syria, regarding the Kurdish minority.
The future of Syria remains uncertain as HTS assumes control under Abu Mohammad al-Julani’s leadership. Efforts to rebuild and repatriate displaced Syrians face challenges, compounded by international scrutiny and skepticism over HTS’s intentions. The global response, including humanitarian conditions and political recognition, will shape Syria’s path toward stability and recovery.