By Thobile Jiwulane
Kenya’s decision to terminate a multi-billion-euro highway expansion deal with a French consortium is the first clear indication that other parts of Africa, besides the Sahel region, are beginning to cut the umbilical cord of dependence on the West while deepening their ties with China in particular and BRICS in general.
This highlights the One China Policy, which serves as the foundation for all relations that China maintains with other countries. This policy influences decisions nations make in their interactions with China, impacting areas such as diplomacy, trade, development aid, and various forms of assistance. The One China Policy has become a crucial factor for countries, including Kenya, in their dealings with China.
Since Donald Trump unilaterally imposed tariff increases on all nations, many countries have sought alternatives to US products and trade with Africa, among the regions seeking markets beyond the USA. In response to the US 145% tariff hike, China increased tariffs to 125% on US products as retaliation for Trump’s actions. The European Union is developing a strategy to determine how it will respond to US tariffs, which affect friendly and unfriendly nations.
These developments particularly impact Africa due to its overreliance on the US for development aid, trade, and socio-economic assistance, including healthcare. South Africa and Lesotho were hit with heavy tariff rises, probably as punishment. The tiny landlocked Mountain Kingdom of Lesotho is undoubtedly being targeted because of its strong diplomatic relations with China since they restored their ties in 1994. In 2024, the bilateral trade volume became US$153 million, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%. China’s exports hit US$124 million, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, and imports will be US$29 million, a year-on-year increase of 10.3% during this period.
Besides the expanded and high-volume trade connection accompanied by the signing of several economic agreements between the two since 2018, they continue to have bilateral exchanges in the fields of culture, education, and health. When Trump joked about Lesotho questioning its existence early this year, it clearly indicated that Maseru would be on his targeted sanctions radar. Many knew that it wasn’t a joke and expected Lesotho to feature prominently among his targets. In South Africa’s case, it is being punished not for non-existent discrimination against white Afrikaners or imagined genocide of white farmers, but due to South Africa’s bold move step to take Israel to the International Court of Justice, alleging that Israel had committed acts of genocide in Gaza. Secondly, China, with which the US had an ongoing trade war, is South Africa’s largest trading partner. All these did not impress Trump, while certain US Republican congressmen were said to have been lobbied by the Israel lobby to adopt policies that were punitive towards South Africa.
Africa’s initial reaction to Trump’s tariff strikes was to renegotiate its trade relations with the US, to reach some consensus around trade tariffs. This was exactly what the US President wanted to achieve by forcing targeted nations to agree to some sort of transaction with America that would benefit the US economy and satisfy Trump’s goal of restoring the US as the world’s economically great nation once more. Another view is that Africa must use the opportunity opened by Trump’s tariff hikes to seek to stand alone and get off the US’ shoulders or dependence on Western aid. The continent should also try to find alternative markets among the BRICS, which have since expanded beyond the original nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. This should include minimising its trade with the US while increasing it with BRICS and among themselves through the African Continental Free Trade Area initiative.
The Sahel nations of Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali removed themselves from the West dependence both economically and militarily and increase their co-operation with the Russian Federation. The three junta-governed countries not only fired the French and US troops from their lands but went further to close the foreign military bases they operated. Subsequently, the soldier leaders embarked on concerted programs to rebuild the countries using their own wealth that would have accrued to France.
Kenya made a surprising decision when it replaced a French consortium with a Chinese company, which had initially been awarded a contract to develop a highway. According to Reuters, which quoted government officials, Kenya has decided to end a €1.3bn (R28.37bn) highway expansion deal with a consortium led by France’s Vinci SA, with the project expected to go to a Chinese contractor instead. The deal to turn 140km of single-lane road into a multilane highway linking the capital Nairobi to the Rift Valley city of Nakuru was signed in Paris in 2020 during a visit by then-president Uhuru Kenyatta. The report said Kenya’s decision to end the contract comes after government authorities had sought to revisit the terms of the agreement, which the Kenya National Highways Authority (KeNHA) said put the risk from insufficient traffic demand onto the government.
China has become synonymous with development in Africa, transforming the continent into a hub for construction, including new roads like the aforementioned Kenyan highway, ports, and various other mega-projects. In contrast, Western support for these types of development in Africa has been minimal.
Observers noted that if it weren’t for China’s history of involvement in Africa’s development, Kenya might have found it challenging to withdraw from the contract. As a result, there is a growing trend among African countries to turn to China for trade and development, largely due to the unconditional assistance it provides to its partners. Confidence in Beijing is expected to increase, especially in light of the tariffs imposed by Trump, which he may have miscalculated. Western and African analysts suggest that while Trump might gain some advantages from his targeted transactional dealings with Africa and other nations, his actions will likely enhance China’s global standing, as affected countries will seek alternatives to the high tariffs he has imposed.
The growth of BRICS and the ongoing de-dollarization of international trade among its member states continue to concern Trump. He threatened to impose a 100% tariff hike on all those who dropped the dollar as trade reserve currency in favour of local currencies or single currency being contemplated for adoption within BRICS. As Vladimir Popescu reported in an article last week, there is an increasing interest in de-dollarization as countries face exorbitant tariff rates, some reaching as high as 50%. Trump has hit China with a staggering 145% tariff. Popescu quoted Kevin Hassett, the director of the US National Economic Council, stating that at least 50 countries are considering de-dollarization. From the looks of things, Trump might intimidate the obvious ones into submission, but the de-dollarisation horse has bolted, and there is no turning back on the issue.
Countries that adhere to the One China Policy are expected to benefit from their consistent relations with China. Their trade with Beijing is likely to increase, especially as the United States isolates itself due to higher tariffs imposed during Trump’s administration. This situation may drive a shift towards trade with BRICS countries, particularly China. The One China Policy was adopted by the United Nations General Assembly in the 1970s, officially recognizing the People’s Republic of China as the sole representative of all Chinese people. This recognition meant that Taiwan was de-recognized as a sovereign state and considered part of China. In Africa, Swaziland is the only country that continues to recognize Taiwan, while the rest follow the One China Policy, leading to increased cooperation between China and African nations.
The issue of Taiwan has become more prominent on the U.S. agenda under the Biden Administration, particularly as the U.S. has expressed support for Taiwan in the event of a military attack by China. However, the U.S. still must adhere to its commitment to recognize only one China. Even during his first term, Trump did not emphasize Taiwan, acknowledging that China and Taiwan are considered one nation, despite the ongoing trade war between the two countries. The European Union has remained steadfast in its support of the One China Policy, while Russia has sought to deepen its ties with China in various areas, including security and economics. This leaves no doubt that Russia is committed to the One China Policy, as are many other countries around the world.
The question of China’s being one of the strongest world economies, currently placed second after the United States, complicates its relations with America and the West in general. There are identifiable inconsistencies in the US attitude towards China. While Washington would have liked to isolate China completely, both countries realised that they needed each other. The current tariffs debate between them is bound to settle at some consensus, especially with China unwilling to back down in the light of Trump’s onslaught, instead intensifying its retaliatory action on tariffs. The exclusion of electronics, for instance, is a clear indication that there are some aspects that America knew it couldn’t do without China’s help, including certain Chinese minerals that are vital to the US defence setup.
We are likely to see Trump use more soft power than hard power in relating to China in the next four years, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he later opts to isolate Taiwan in favour of some cooperation with Beijing. In line with the adage that in politics, there are no permanent friends and no permanent enemies but permanent interests, geopolitics is not always about tension; it’s a game of shifting goalposts.