By Thobile Jiwulane
The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s whirlwind visit to South Africa on 24 April wasn’t a state visit, but it was billed as an official visit, which is a few notches lower than a state visit with no elaborate protocol, such as the army pomp and romp, 21-gun salute.
That is how it was designed anyway because he wasn’t here for a state visit, but he needed time and space to cool off and do the work on behalf of Ukraine, hence some state officials called it a “working visit”. He desperately needed that breather.
Experts in South Africa say the visit was about finding new friends or strengthening old bonds after realising that Donald Trump was busy pushing him under the bus on the question of a ceasefire with Russia. Trump wants Ukraine to concede territories already won by Russia in the current war and give up Crimea, which Moscow took in 2014. He is resisting that, especially Crimea. Zelensky and Vladimir Putin’s contrasting demands towards a ceasefire are believed to be responsible for the lack of progress in the US-initiated peace talks.
Zelensky identified South Africa as the best place to cool off and to continue finding a solution to end the war in his country. South Africa was the best place for such a working visit – it is part of the African Peace Initiative that undertook an urgent visit to both Kyiv and Moscow in an attempt find a lasting solution to the conflict. But the African heads of state and senior officials of the African Union Commission didn’t receive a warm welcome from Kyiv. Even Zelensky’s own aide undermined the Africa delegation, portraying their effort as a waste of time, and Zelensky himself did not take them seriously.
With military and financial support coming in droves from the Biden Administration and Europe, he was hoping to stop Russia in its military tracks. But it was never to be. However, Trump changed the direction of the war, demanding peace via a negotiated settlement. At the same time, the transactional US president wanted to make some gains out of the process to benefit his country and his approach to international relations. He wanted to access the Ukrainian mineral resources, for which he somehow succeeded, or partially.
But then the Trump suggestion that Moscow should be allowed to keep the territories it had taken during the war and before had hardened attitudes in Kyiv and at some European capitals backing Zelensky.
However, the perspective of Zelensky’s visit to South Africa ought to be understood in its proper context. After realising that Trump had become pushy in his mediation effort, Zelensky felt President Cyril Ramaphosa would be the best leader to intervene and bring sanity to the process. Ramaphosa is an internationally renowned peace negotiator first in the trade union movement where he was a mineworkers union leader and in politics.
He almost single-handedly achieved South Africa’s democratic settlement in 1994, having led negotiations on behalf of the ANC party with its enemy, the National Party.
Besides the ridicule he experienced as part of the African Peace initiative, Ramaphosa came under a barrage of criticism from the West and within the opposition in South Africa that Pretoria was siding with Russia in the conflict, after it refused to condemn Moscow for the invasion. South Africa insisted on being non-aligned in the battle for dominance among the major powers, and non-alignment is infused in its foreign policy. Few believed Pretoria at the time as all countries were expected to condemn or even expel Russia from the UN Human Rights committee. But it put its foot down even when it clearly lost complete trust in Ukraine.
But three things had worked in South Africa‘s favour as a mediator that Zelensky suddenly had to trust and pin his hopes on: the lack of progress in the Ukrainian peace talks and Zelensky’s realisation that the Russian army had begun to bombard the capital, Kyiv. Experts said the Ukrainian president wanted to avert a Russian takeover of his country; hence, he readily agreed to an unconditional ceasefire during his talks with his South African counterpart last week. He had to cut the visit short as the Russian Armed Forces had intensified the attack on Kyiv even as Zelensky was in South Africa.
That became an indication by him and his European backers, living with the belief that Ukraine’s resistance had strengthened with renewed backing from Europe, that matters were not going in their favour. They realised that Russia was winning the war and the capital city was at risk of being overrun by Russian forces shortly. The third factor was Trump’s growing weariness that both sides kept shifting the goalposts, and his patience was getting thinner with both Zelensky and Putin’s refusal to compromise.
First, Trump was aware of Zelensky’s visit to South Africa and approved it, contrary to claims that he was opposed to the visit. In fact, he wanted it to happen, and to him, Ramaphosa, with his one foot already in the Ukraine peace process, would be suitable to soften both Zelensky and Putin, who is a friend of South Africa historically.
Ramaphosa, the shrewd negotiator that he is, consulted both Trump and Putin before meeting Zelensky on Thursday last week. One Wednesday, he had a phone call with Putin, who was also rumoured to be against the Zelensky tour, and a last-minute cross-Atlantic early morning telephone conversation with Trump on Thursday, hours before Zelensky landed on South African soil. Putin’s implied approval of the visit surprised even the Russian diplomatic circle in Pretoria and left the ANC leftwing partners and other left-leaning parties in shock. These parties staged demonstrations against the Zelensky tour both outside the Ukrainian embassy in Pretoria and the Union Buildings, the administrative state house of South Africa. But the South Africa president was unperturbed by their noise, focusing his eyes on the ball.
Putin, as an ally of South Africa, was not a problem to Ramaphosa, but he was worried about Trump, who had labelled South Africa as a bad country based on false claims he was fed by the rightwing groupings in South Africa that Pretoria was ill-treating the white Afrikaner group and forcefully taking their land. Indeed, the claims were baseless, for the Afrikaners are the most privileged minority group and enjoy the country’s riches. At the same time, the black majority continue to languish in poverty and enduring landlessness, even with the change they fought for and freedom they achieved in 1994.
The Zelensky visit also became a PR exercise for Ramaphosa in the light of the onslaught sanctioning by Trump, who withdraw aid from the country and also for those who believed that South Africa sided with Moscow in the conflict. Hosting Zelensky was a coup that could melt the hearts and convinced many that South Africa was indeed neutral in its foreign policy approach.
Ramaphosa used his conversation with Trump to discuss relations between Washington and Pretoria and to iron out their differences. Reputational expert, former journalist and former state spokesperson, Makhosini Mgitywa delved into the Ramaphosa-Trump discussion on social media. Mgitywa, who has become known for raising interesting topics on his Facebook account accurately analysed a tweet by Ramaphosa about the visit.
“This is the most important tweet from President Ramaphosa to date, on the issue of relations between his country and the United States. That the two leaders spoke suggests to me that Mr Ramaphosa has broken the barrier Mr Trump had put up. Remember he said his administration wasn’t talking to the SA government? It’s speculation on my part, but this development may also mean that (Ramaphosa’s) special envoy Mcebisi Jonas has made, or will make, progress in his assignment,” Mgitywa said.
In the Facebook post, Mgitywa went further to explain how the discussion would undermine the efforts of the white right groups who have been campaigning for South Africa’s isolation by Trump. He wrote; “This also means that Afriforum may soon realise that at the end of the day the Trump administration will liaise and do business with the Ramaphosa administration, notwithstanding their anti-ANC and anti-SA government lobby.
Mgitywa also touched on what international relations expert and academic, Dr Jan Venter spoke about in his comment to a local newspaper that in fact, Trump agreeing to speak to Ramaphosa in itself indicated the US President was getting off his high horse and realising he was alone or isolating himself. Otherwise, Venter argued, Trump wouldn’t have agreed to a future meeting with Ramaphosa to discuss improving the sour US-SA relations.
Mgitywa saw it similarly: “You see, President Trump probably feels isolated right now. China is running rings around him on the trade war he started. Traditional US allies like the EU, Canada and others have not responded the way he would have hoped when he slapped them with tariffs. If SA wants to talk, he is most likely to listen and engage at this time. Again, my humble opinion,” Mgitywa said.
Indeed, Zelensky’s sojourn in South Africa was a boast for Ramaphosa, who was desperately trying to amend relations with the US after his ambassador to America, Ibrahim Rasool, was expelled by Secretary of State Marco Rubio for speaking badly about Trump and his administration during an online seminar recently. Ramaphosa needed an opportunity to talk directly to Trump, as all delegations he sent to Washington seemed to soften Trump’s attitude towards South Africa came back empty-handed. The distance of the first call that Ramaphosa made to Trump to congratulate him after being elected as the US president and last week’s telephone conversation between them was long, a sign that the tensions were high between the two leaders.
But now they have agreed to a face-to-face meeting to discuss improving relations. The Zelensky visit and the pending Trump-Ramaphosa talks would help South Africa’s reputation as a genuine and neutral player in the Ukrainian process and further convince the world to accept Pretoria’s insistence that it is non-aligned in international disputes.
The spinoff of South Africa’s role in attempting to bring a lasting peace in Ukraine would be realised in the trust the world attaches to outcomes. Zelensky suddenly agreeing to an unconditional ceasefire after speaking to Ramaphosa when he was difficult in his discussion with Trump earlier would help to establish South Africa as a frontline player in attempts to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.
The visit had cemented that South Africa, in particular, and Africa, in general, have a significant role to play in international affairs, including resolving wars outside the continent. Should the peace finally be achieved, that would elevate Africa to a high level of respect by the international community as a significant factor on the world stage.