By Mirna Fahmy

• Iran Strikes Back
• Oil Under Fire
• Iran Infiltrated
• The Signal: U.S. Diplomacy Fails
• The Future of Iran

At dawn on June 13, 2025, one of the most anticipated military escalations in recent Middle Eastern history unfolded. Acting on a long-expected green light from the United States, Israel launched a sweeping assault on Iran, initiating “Operation Rising Lion”—a campaign inspired by a biblical prophecy foretelling a triumphant future for Israel.

The operation’s name draws from Numbers 23:24: “Behold, the people shall rise up as a great lion, and lift up himself as a young lion: he shall not lie down until he eats of the prey, and drinks the blood of the slain.”

Framed as a decisive move to dismantle Iran’s ruling regime, the offensive primarily targets the leadership surrounding Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

“This operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat,” declared Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on his official X account.

Among the initial targets were key nuclear facilities, including Natanz and Fordow—both central to Iran’s uranium enrichment program—as well as Khondab and Khorramabad. Natanz, in particular, sustained heavy damage. While the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that the site was affected, it reported no rise in radiation levels. Other installations, such as those in Isfahan and Bushehr, remained unscathed.

Strikes also extended to residential areas housing high-ranking Iranian military and nuclear officials. Some of these strikes resulted in significant civilian casualties.

According to Iranian state media, the attacks killed several top figures, including four senior leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and nine nuclear scientists. Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations reported that 78 people were killed and over 320 wounded, stating that “the overwhelming majority” of the victims were civilians.

Iran Strikes Back: “Operation True Promise III” Unleashed

In swift retaliation, Iran launched a large-scale counteroffensive dubbed “Operation True Promise III,” marking the most significant direct exchange between the two nations to date. The operation saw the launch of over 150 ballistic missiles and more than 100 Shahed drones targeting sites across Israel.

Iran claimed it successfully struck numerous Israeli military installations and air bases, with missiles reportedly reaching as far as Tel Aviv and other central locations. While Israeli, Jordanian, and Saudi air defense systems intercepted a majority of the incoming threats, several missiles and drones penetrated defenses and hit their intended targets.

Among the most concerning developments was a ballistic missile fired by Houthi forces in Yemen—aligned with Iran—that landed in Hebron after veering off course from Jerusalem. The impact injured five Palestinian civilians.

Iran’s assault inflicted casualties inside Israel. At least two Israeli civilians were killed during the initial waves of missile strikes. Dozens more were injured—63 in total—ranging from light to critical injuries. One critically wounded individual later succumbed to their injuries.

A renewed barrage on June 14 added seven more civilian injuries, bringing the total number of injured to nearly 70.

Oil Under Fire: Energy Frontlines in the Israel–Iran Conflict

Beyond targeting nuclear facilities, Israel’s June 2025 strikes extended to Iran’s critical oil and fuel infrastructure—inflicting serious damage on the country’s energy sector.

One of the most notable targets was the Shahran fuel and gasoline depot in Tehran, which housed at least 11 storage tanks. The site was set ablaze during the attacks, causing massive explosions and a major disruption to local fuel supplies. Similarly, the Shahr Rey oil refinery—among Iran’s largest—was hit, with fires visible from miles away. Reports also indicate that sections of the South Pars gas field, a vital national resource, were damaged in the strikes.

Oil prices rose sharply in response to the escalation. Brent crude futures surged by over 7% on June 13, 2025, reaching their highest levels in months. The spike was driven by fears of a broader regional conflict that could disrupt oil supplies—especially given Iran’s role as a major producer and its proximity to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical choke point for global oil shipments.

While Iran responded with missile and drone attacks aimed at Israeli cities and military installations—including areas near Haifa, home to key gas infrastructure—there were no confirmed hits on Israel’s oil depots or refineries.

In the aftermath, Iranian officials hinted at a broader form of retaliation: the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which channels nearly 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products daily—roughly one-fifth of global supply. According to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency, Major General Esmail Kowsari of the IRGC stated that shutting down the strait remains “on the table” as a strategic response.

However, energy analysts disregarded such a move. Ellen Wald, president of Transferall Consulting, was quoted in Sky News Arabia that there is “no net benefit” to disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, especially since Iran’s own exports remain a crucial economic lifeline. She added that a blockade could provoke severe international backlash—particularly from China, Iran’s largest oil customer, which could use its economic leverage in response.

Meanwhile, Israel, anticipating potential retaliation, temporarily suspended natural gas exports to Egypt and Jordan by shutting down its largest gas field, Leviathan. The move, described as a precautionary measure, was intended to protect critical infrastructure and personnel during a period of heightened risk. Both Egypt and Jordan confirmed the suspension and turned to alternative fuels to maintain domestic energy stability.

Iran Infiltrated: Mossad’s Shadow War From Within

The scope of Israel’s assault on Iran extended far beyond airstrikes—it was, in many ways, a war waged from within. Resembling the infamous “Pager Attack” against Hezbollah members in Lebanon the previous year, much of the Israeli operation was reportedly launched from inside Iranian territory.

According to Israeli intelligence agencies, including Mossad and the Military Intelligence Directorate, this operation was the result of years of covert espionage. Israeli operatives had allegedly infiltrated deep into Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure, establishing networks capable of executing precision sabotage from within the Islamic Republic.

Mossad agents are said to have smuggled advanced explosives and weaponized drones into Iran, hiding them in ordinary vehicles, disguised containers, and even in rocks. These weapons were staged near high-value military targets—such as surface-to-air missile systems and missile launchers surrounding Tehran.

On June 13, Mossad released video footage allegedly showing agents operating on Iranian soil, including the deployment of drones from within Iran’s borders. One video shows two agents initiating an attack near a missile launcher, asserting that a covert internal strike paralyzed portions of Iran’s defensive network before the aerial bombardment began.

Among the most explosive allegations is that high-ranking Iranian officials acted as spies for Israel. Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in a prior televised interview, claimed that “the head of the Iranian secret intelligence unit formed to hunt down Mossad agents was himself a Mossad member,” alongside 20 others working for Israel.

In a revelation that shocked both regional and global observers, Israeli media reported that General Esmail Qaani, commander of the IRGC Quds Force, had long been an Israeli asset. Intelligence he allegedly provided was instrumental in the targeted killings of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh, and senior Hezbollah leaders Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine. Reports suggest Qaani is now under Israeli protection.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reportedly escaped an assassination attempt, but intelligence experts believe he remains a top target. Analysts argue that the Israeli operation seeks not just to dismantle Iran’s military capabilities, but to eliminate its leadership and bring an end to what Israel sees as a regime responsible for repression at home and destabilization abroad.

The Signal: U.S. Diplomacy Fails, Opening the Door to Israeli Strikes

The Israeli offensive did not emerge in a vacuum. It came on the heels of intense, months-long diplomatic efforts by the United States to avert a military confrontation with Iran over its nuclear ambitions.

In early 2025, President Donald Trump initiated indirect negotiations with Tehran, seeking to peacefully dismantle Iran’s nuclear program. The diplomatic overture began with a personal letter sent by Trump to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, proposing dialogue as an alternative to war. Talks were subsequently held in Oman, Rome, and Muscat, where U.S. and Iranian negotiators explored a framework for limiting uranium enrichment, expanding inspections, and possibly lifting sanctions.

According to diplomatic sources, the negotiations were initially described as “serious and constructive.” Trump’s push for swift diplomacy reflected a dual goal: to avoid an immediate conflict while maintaining maximum pressure on Iran. He imposed a strict 60-day timeline for a deal, signaling both urgency and limited patience.

However, the talks collapsed due to irreconcilable differences. Iran insisted on preserving its enriched uranium stockpile and maintaining its full nuclear fuel cycle, while the U.S. demanded steep concessions—including near-zero enrichment and the transfer of high-grade uranium to a third country. Iran also refused to negotiate over its ballistic missile program or its support for proxy forces across the region—two non-negotiables for the U.S.

As trust deteriorated, warning signs mounted. Iran issued threats toward U.S. bases in the region, and American diplomatic personnel began evacuating from key embassies. On June 12, just one day before the Israeli strike, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officially declared Iran in breach of its nuclear non-proliferation obligations.

Amid this breakdown in diplomacy, the U.S. military significantly increased its presence in the Middle East. By June 11, approximately 50,000 U.S. troops had been deployed throughout the region, and CENTCOM presented Trump with a range of military options.

Then, the signal came—without a direct order, but unmistakably clear in its timing. On June 13, Israel launched its full-scale assault on Iran. The strike followed the IAEA’s declaration and occurred in the wake of the failed talks, the regional troop buildup, and heightened tension across U.S. and Israeli strategic circles.

That same day, Trump took to his Truth Social platform, stating:

“I gave Iran two months—60 days—to make a deal and reconcile with Israel, to put their nuclear future in responsible hands, not Russia’s. They refused. If there is no deal, there will be nothing left.”

He warned that future strikes would be “even more brutal” and that “only Tehran can stop the coming slaughter by choosing peace now.”

Though not a formal order, the alignment of events—diplomatic failure, military buildup, international condemnation, and public warnings—left little doubt that the U.S. had signaled its approval for Israel to act.

The Future of Iran: A Return to Monarchy?

As the Islamic Republic of Iran reels from unprecedented military and internal upheaval, attention has begun shifting toward an unlikely but increasingly discussed figure: Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last monarch.

Reza Pahlavi, the crown prince of the Pahlavi dynasty, is the son of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, who ruled Iran until the Islamic Revolution of 1979 swept him from power and replaced the monarchy with the current theocratic regime. Now, decades later, whispers of a potential restoration have re-emerged—fueled by growing dissatisfaction with Iran’s leadership and active support from Israel.

Prominent regional voices have begun floating the idea of Pahlavi’s return. Egyptian television host and political commentator Tawfik Okasha, known for cryptic geopolitical predictions, posted on his X account that “Reza Pahlavi has completed his political training on how to rule and rebuild countries. He is waiting for the zero hour to return to Iran and sit on the throne of his father, who is buried in Egypt.”

Pahlavi himself added fuel to the speculation. In a post on his X account, he declared:

“It is time to help the Iranian people overthrow the regime that holds both Iran and the world hostage.”

In May, his daughter Iman Pahlavi married Jewish-American tech entrepreneur and venture capitalist Bradley Sherman in New York. The wedding, which blended Parisian elegance with Jewish traditions, was widely interpreted as a symbolic gesture of bridging cultural and political divides—a vision of a more globally integrated future Iran, should the regime fall.

Israel has signaled informal support for a Pahlavi return, viewing him as a secular, pro-Western alternative to the clerical regime. However, the United States remains conspicuously silent on the matter. Despite their shared interest in dismantling Iran’s nuclear ambitions, American officials have not endorsed any plan involving the reinstatement of a monarchy.

Historical memory also complicates the picture. A once-classified CIA study described the late Shah as a “brilliant, but dangerous megalomaniac” who was likely to prioritize his own ambitions over U.S. interests. When confronted with this analysis in a 1976 60 Minutes interview, the Shah famously replied, “I don’t want to be a stooge.”

Today, his son finds himself at the center of a growing debate over Iran’s post-regime future. Whether he becomes a transitional leader, symbolic figurehead, or remains in exile depends on both the course of the ongoing conflict and the will of the Iranian people.