By Thobile Jiwulane
As Cyril Ramaphosa’s tenure as ANC president approaches its end in 2027, speculation has turned to who might succeed him. Among the names circulating is Patrice Motsepe, billionaire businessman, philanthropist, and current president of the Confederation of African Football (CAF). His profile—wealth, international stature, and family ties to Ramaphosa—makes him a compelling figure in public discourse. Yet the prospect of Motsepe leading the ANC raises deeper questions about the party’s identity, renewal, and electoral viability.
The debate over succession may feel premature, as the ANC’s leadership election will only take place at its elective national conference in December 2027. Ramaphosa is currently serving his second and final term as party president, but he is expected to remain head of state until 2029, when his constitutional mandate as South Africa’s president expires.
Yet whether his successor as head of state will come from the ANC is far from certain. The party has already lost its parliamentary majority and now governs as part of a Government of National Unity alongside nine other parties. Forecasts place ANC support below 40%, underscoring both its electoral vulnerability and the possibility that future presidents may emerge from coalition negotiations rather than ANC dominance. This reality reframes the leadership debate: it is not only about who leads the ANC, but whether the ANC itself remains the central pillar of South Africa’s political order.
“The ANC’s crisis is not merely managerial; it is existential”
Motsepe’s reputation as a dignified and respectable businessman does not automatically translate into political capital. The ANC’s crisis is not merely managerial; it is existential. The party faces declining legitimacy, factional fragmentation, and voter disillusionment after securing only 40% in the 2024 elections. A technocratic outsider, however accomplished, may struggle to navigate the entrenched networks, ideological battles, and grassroots expectations that define ANC politics.
Political analyst Dr Oscar van Heerden underscores this point: ANC membership alone does not confer the status of stalwart. Leadership in the ANC is forged through decades of struggle, factional negotiation, and service within its structures. Motsepe’s absence from this inner circle raises doubts about his ability to command authority in a party where legitimacy is earned through political, not financial, capital.
“ANC membership alone does not confer the status of stalwart. Leadership is forged through decades of struggle and service.” — Dr Oscar van Heerden
Van Heerden’s critique extends beyond Motsepe to the broader debate about whether ANC stalwarts can rescue the party. Figures such as Thabo Mbeki and Kgalema Motlanthe remain respected, but Van Heerden argues that their era has passed. He calls for generational renewal, pointing to younger leaders already embedded in the ANC’s national executive committee.
Names like Ronald Lamola, Nomvula Mokonyane, David Makhura, Parks Tau, Thembi Simelane and others of this calibre, represent, in his view, a more viable path to revitalization. He gives Mokonyane the benefit of doubt forgiving her for alleged involved in the corrupt state capture scandal that saw state-owned enterprises being hollowed out by senior party members. Van Heerden argues Mokonyane has since mended her crooked ways under Ramaphosa.
“With effective generational leadership, the ANC could raise its support from 40% to around 47%”
This argument is not simply about age. It reflects a recognition that the ANC’s challenges—coalition governance, service delivery crises, and electoral decline—require leaders with direct experience in today’s political terrain. Younger leaders, already tested in government and party structures, may be better positioned to reconnect with voters and rebuild organizational capacity.
Van Heerden projects that with effective generational leadership, the ANC could raise its support from 40% to around 47% in the next election cycle—still short of an outright majority but enough to strengthen its bargaining power in coalition politics. This projection highlights the strategic stakes: whether the ANC opts for continuity through a figure like Motsepe, or renewal through younger cadres, will shape not only its internal cohesion but also South Africa’s broader political stability.
“Can the ANC reinvent itself through technocratic credibility, or survives on leaders forged from within own structures?”
Motsepe’s potential candidacy symbolizes the tension between elite-driven leadership and grassroots renewal. His entry would test whether the ANC can reinvent itself through technocratic credibility, or whether its survival depends on leaders forged within its own structures. For a party at risk of electoral irrelevance, the choice is stark: embrace generational renewal and institutional reform, or retreat into symbolic leadership that may not resonate
with a disillusioned electorate.
“The ANC is “finished” and will never recover, regardless of who leads it” – Analyst Prince Mashele
However, some analysts take a far more pessimistic view of the ANC’s trajectory. Thought leaders such as Prince Mashele argue that the party’s decline is terminal, not cyclical. In his assessment, the ANC is “finished” and will never recover, regardless of who leads it. In a podcast interview with Sbu Loepe, Mashele describe the party as a dead horse% that would be completely out of power as it would hardly get 20% in the 2029 election.
This perspective adds to a chorus of commentators who believe the party’s days are numbered, suggesting that even respected figures like Motsepe—or stalwarts such as Thabo Mbeki and Kgalema Motlanthe—cannot reverse the erosion of trust and legitimacy. For that matter, said Mashele: “South Africans do not want to vote for a rich man, they become suspicious of someone with a lot of money.”
“The horse has already bolted, and no amount of elite credibility or generational renewal can bring it back”
For these analysts, the metaphor is stark: the horse has already bolted, and no amount of elite credibility or generational renewal can bring it back. Their view reframes the leadership debate not as a question of who can save the ANC, but whether the ANC itself is salvageable at all.
Taken together, these perspectives suggest that the ANC’s leadership contest in 2027 will be less about personalities than about the party’s very survival. If Van Heerden is right, renewal through younger leaders could buy the ANC time and bargaining power in coalition politics. If Mashele is right, Motsepe’s entry—or any stalwart’s return—will serve only as a symbolic marker of a party already in retreat. Either way, the ANC faces a defining moment: whether it can reinvent itself as a credible governing force, or whether South Africa is entering a post‑ANC political era.