Since the US administration has turned its attention to assisting Ukraine against Russia and countering China in the Pacific region, Iran is trying to fill the power vacuum in the region.
The Islamic Republic of Iran is the ultimate winner of the United States’ Gulf Wars as Shia Tehran has increased its influence in Baghdad since the fall of the Sunni Saddam Hussein in 2003.
The Iranian regime has also built strong relations with Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, who succeeded his father, Hafez al-Assad. The Assads hail from the Alawites, a minority ethno-religious group that originated from Shia Islam.
Iran’s economy has suffered significantly from international sanctions and oil export bans for many years. Tehran is trying to build close relations with the Western world as well as Middle Eastern countries to improve the living conditions of millions of Iranians.
On the other hand, the Iranian regime has maintained strong ties with Moscow since the Tehran government did not join global sanctions against Russia and is trying to benefit to the maximum from the war on Ukraine.
Russia’s war on Ukraine is encouraging Iran to gain power in the Middle East since major European countries, and especially the United States, have shown a reluctance to counter Russian forces militarily in Ukraine but rather only supply weapons to Ukrainian forces.
The United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan has also motivated Iran to conduct military operations, as the US is no longer regarded as the prevalent superpower in the region.
Iran has strong political ties with Moscow, but this relationship does not produce any major economic benefits for Tehran since trade between Iran and Russia in 2021 topped only $4 billion (R72.1 billion) – 4% of Iran’s imports and 2 percent of Iran’s exports to Russia.
Russia is trying to prevent Iran from developing close ties with the Western world and promises to support Iran’s nuclear deal with the world powers.
High-level Iranian and Syrian officials have held several meetings since the early days of the Ukraine war to discuss opportunities as Russian influence would decrease in Syria.
Tehran is also hoping to replace Russia in gas exports to Europe as Iran has the second largest natural gas reserves in the world after Russia.
The major powers’ withdrawal from the Middle East leaves a power vacuum for Iran to fill, but strong Middle Eastern countries have united against Iranian expansionism.
The UAE and Bahrain normalised ties with Israel under the US brokered Abraham Accords in 2020, and Saudi Arabian leaders have expressed a willingness to establish ties with Israel. The Jewish state has been in a proxy war with Iran for decades.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are disturbed by the presence of Iranian-backed Houthis on their doorstep in Yemen. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been trying to defeat the Houthis since 2015 after they took over the capital Sanaa, but the military campaign has failed to eliminate the Houthis and has caused one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to Jordan, Egypt and Turkey and his business agreements with these countries can be seen as a move to isolate Iran in the region.
It seems that Iran, the country that has been most supportive of al-Assad since the Syrian civil war erupted in 2011, will not gain much control in Syria or elsewhere in the current situation with Russia’s focus on Ukraine.
While the Shia Iran regime is fighting against major Middle Eastern states, Turkey’s Erdogan is improving ties with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Israel.