Mthobeli Jiwulane

South Africa’s Minister of International Relations and Cooperative, Naledi Pandor has been seen as “playing with fire” in her tough talk towards the United States in the recent past, but few realise the long game being played by Washington to counter Russia and China’s influence in Africa in the process.

Ideally South Africa and the US should not be in speaking terms because of Pretoria’s cosy relationship with Russia or its non-aligned stance on Ukraine. Even expectations among conservatives in South Africa was for Washington to impose sanctions and even attack South Africa as punishment for not toeing its line at the United Nations or supporting sanctions against the Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

Instead South Africa insisted on its non-aligned position and maintaining its liberation era ties with Moscow, a move that obviously should annoy America. The former Soviet Union trained the ruling African National Congress armed wing guerrillas including many ANC senior members.

But the US took a conciliatory approach towards South Africa and observers see it as a long game that the United States was busy playing, it’s part of global geopolitical games between the superpowers. The US realised the fast growing threat from Russia and China to dominate Africa.

International affairs analyst, Prof Siphamandla Zondi, said the USA’s conciliatory approach towards the Ramaphosa government had more to do with attempts by US to expand its influence not only to South Africa but the rest of the continent. “As the geopolitical contests at the global level intensify, battles over the spheres of influence also grow. Africa is one site of that contestation for attention, for support, for vassal-hood, for joining coalitions used to play geopolitical games globally,” Zondi said.

This exacerbated by the potential growth of Brics – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa forum as a world economic power and even militarily. The coming joint naval exercise between South Africa, Russia and China should be a source of worry by the White House and Pentagon.

Another analyst, Prof Jan Venter from North West University said there is now an intense competition between the big powers US especially and Russia which had a loose alliance with China to attain influence in Africa. “All of a sudden America has woken up on their side as they had been neglecting the third world especially Africa, but it’s a bit too late for them,” Venter said.

Pretoria found itself in the middle of the giants that each wanted to win it to its side and in the tug-of-war it’s unclear at this stage which side South African will fall on. But one thing for sure, to the Biden Administration, the black ruled South Africa was not only a significant trading partner, but a strategic one to have on its side even when it does not listen. Biden himself, as then US senator, strongly supported the anti-apartheid campaign in the US congress and has some personal sympathy towards the liberated South Africa.

Washington, notorious for bullying other nations to back its strong arm approach to international affairs, had no intention of telling South Africa how to conduct its affairs.

Instead the US respected South Africa’s sovereignty, There is a general view, at least within the diplomatic cycles, that the US understood where South Africa came from when it came to Russia and the “US was not about to tell South Africa who it should choose as its friends”.

Zondi firmly believed America’s manoeuvers were linked to its rivalry with Russia on the political and military fronts and China mainly on the economic front and both had already spread their tentacles of influence in the continent.

The US was trying to leverage on its strong trade ties with South Africa which in turn had the European Union as its largest trading partner. Previously the former US Ambassador to South Africa, Lana Marks once told The Citizen that “we don’t like to be the third best, we want to be the best”. The short-lived diplomat was referring to America’s intention to be number one above EU and Germany in its trade with South Africa.

The US was feeling the pinch of China which had a huge economic influence in Africa and solidarity towards Russia had grown since the February 2022 invasion in Ukraine. These were matters that worry the US and the reason it wanted to counter China and Russia’s influence on the continent.

Zondi believed the diplomatic traffic between Pretoria and Washington and Pretoria and Moscow the last six month was not coincidence. US secretary of state Antony Blinken came in August followed by a president tour of US invited by President Joe Biden and this week visit to South Africa by Russian Minister Sergei Lavrov.  A few days after Russia’s Lavrov, US treasury secretary, Janet Yellen landed in South Africa and offered to fund the combating of wildlife trafficking in the country and her visit revolved around strengthening trade with South Africa.

“Sergei Lavrov’s visit like Anton Blinken’s last year must be seen in that bigger scheme of things. The war in Ukraine after Russia invaded it is part of that geopolitical contest and our support or neutrality is needed by both sides so they can continue with their contest. Each side feels the need to explain itself directly to Africa because the information warfare that accompanies the war makes narratives an important tool of war,” Zondi said.

South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana was more optimistic about the potential impact of Yellen’s visit. “I am pleased that Secretary Yellen is one of the leading U.S. Government Leaders that is advancing the U.S. administration’s initiative to bolster trade, economic and financial relations with South Africa and the African Continent. The United States ranks among South Africa’s top trading partners, with a diverse flow of goods, services, and know-how between the two states, serving as a critical launch-pad for the development of both economies. My hope is that this may continue,” Godongwana

According to analyst Zondi, the US interest was more than about trade, investment or economics. “Of course, big trade the US has with Africa is an entry point, warm political relations since Soviet times and its identification with the global south in the past three decades is what Russia will use in this current stage of geopolitics. “Much of this focus on Africa is not about Africa’s interests or shared interests between these powers and Africa, but about rivalry between the global powers. As one powers comes to Africa with smiles and promises, the rival powers also come with the same, so as not be outdone,” Zondi said.