Mirna Fahmy – Diplomatic Inside
The extreme heat waves that the planet is experiencing this summer of 2024 are immobilising the economic growth of many countries.
Half way through the year 2024, it has been predicted and assured by many weather experts, studies, research, and sources that this year will be the warmest and hottest year, like 2023. That’s all due to climate change and its consequences, including many natural disaster phenomena.
As climate change intensifies, heatwaves are becoming more frequent, severe, and prolonged. This poses a growing threat to economic stability and requires proactive measures to build resilience and adapt to changing climate conditions.
In many regions that are naturally cold and have been exposed to severe heat waves in the past 11 months, negative impacts have started to pop up and span all around, crippling many sides of the global economy such as agriculture, energy consumption, productivity, and infrastructure.
Agriculture is the most prominent issue that is at the top of discussion whenever any climate change or heat wave topics are mentioned. Crops take time to adapt to the new environment, especially when it is related to exposure to excessive heat. Mitigation and adaptation are considered solutions, but they take time to ensure effectiveness. If not practised well, famine and price hikes might be threatening global issues.
Wheat is an extremely important food item all over the world. Heat stress can lead to reduced grain fill, lower protein content, and decreased yield. India is a major wheat producer, and the heatwave has caused widespread damage to the crop, leading to significant yield reductions.
According to the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture), world wheat end stocks are forecast to drop from 269.85 mm to 258.20 mm this year. These are the lowest-end stocks in nearly ten years.
There is a need for good production numbers when harvests start in the Northern Hemisphere during the summer months of 2024, the department stated. With rain persisting as it is, there is no certainty either. It could paint a troubling picture if end stocks take another hit in 2025.
This has implications for domestic food security and wheat exports, whereas India has diminished wheat exports in 2022, affecting the global market with the Chicago benchmark wheat index rising by nearly 6%. Overall, recent dry spells and fluctuating conditions have raised concerns about production prospects for 2024, according to U.S. Wheat Associates. The persistent moisture deficit in some areas may keep wheat prices elevated, although improvements in other regions and the potential for timely rains could offset the impact.
Despite all of that, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) projected on April 5 that wheat output could reach 796 million tonnes in 2024, a 1% growth from 2023 output. All sources have stated that the wheat price hasn’t increased much in the last three years.
Besides heat, flooding can kill crops, including wheat, as excessive water might choke the roots to breath, especially when absorbing too much water.
Heatwaves can inflict regular power outages in many areas. The high temperature requires much electricity and power to operate cooling devices such as air conditioning (AC) in order to cool down places for productivity, increasing energy consumption, which might be a problem for many governments.
Egypt’s brutal heat waves is said to serve as an ominous warning upending commodities and agriculture as described by many experts. The country has been witnessing regular power cuts daily for nearly two hours, and they can exceed more than that on some days because of the insufficient supply of the gases that run the electricity stations. The Egyptian start-up company, Mobco, decided to close its three factories due to the cessation of natural gas production in the company’s factories. As a result, Abu Qir Fertilisers Company decided to stop its three factories, and the Saidi Kerr Chemicals Company also discovered that its factories had stopped “due to the interruption of feed gases.”
Following the same path as Egypt, Kuwait decided to apply the two-hour power cut to alleviate the pressure on the electricity supplies as the weather has reached over 50 degrees Celsius, though the country is the biggest exporter of petroleum and natural gases.
In the U.S., many articles emphasise that the country might face prolonged power outages because the heatwaves will destroy the infrastructure of many electricity grids and stations. This indicates that existing infrastructure will become less efficient, especially inland, resulting in reduced capacity on lines and higher losses in transformers than in coastal cities.
Coastal cities rely mainly on the ocean to cool off the flammable weather, while the remote inland regions consume a lot of electricity, especially the AC. By this time, these ACs will not function properly, not only because of the electricity supply but also because they are no longer adjusted to the current and future weather; they are still designed for the past weather, which was a bit calmer than the vigorous of now.
In a Washington Post article, it is explained that transformers need to be more heat-resistant. This can be achieved by installing cooling systems and trying to place them in the shade. But the main thing to do is to simply build more of them.
No one can possess supernatural body powers that can resist the high temperature for hours without excessive sweating and heat exhaustion. That can lead to the simple conclusion that heatwaves reduce labour productivity. In the UK, there has been a surge in workers taking a day off, working from home, or calling in sick because of the heatwaves, according to The Guardian. During a heatwave in June 2022, the article stated that annual leave requests increased by 139% on the daily average, while sickness absences rose by 123%.
Heat stress is projected to reduce total working hours worldwide by 2.2 percent and global GDP by US$2,400 billion in 2030, the International Labour Organisation report entitled “Working on a Warmer Planet: The Impact of Heat Stress on Labour Productivity and Decent Work” stated. Agricultural and construction workers are expected to be the worst affected, accounting for 60 percent and 19 percent, respectively, of working hours lost to heat stress in 2030, as too much exposure to heat might increase death tolls. Regarding indoor work, the number of hours might be curtailed to escape the waves of the midday or shift to working entirely from home to decrease the sun exposure or the flooding or hurricanes that might strike anytime for days at least during the summer season.
Tourism won’t stay safe because of the scorching summer in Europe, which has become more than average in recent years. Europe is the best travel destination in summer because of its sunny, warm, and breezy weather with clear blue skies. Now, Europe is no different from tropical countries, as it is also affected by the high temperatures.
This summer, wildfires have ravaged some of the world’s top holiday destinations, from Rhodes, Corfu, and Athens in Greece to parts of Italy, Spain, and southern Turkey, severely disrupting tourism in these regions.
Fires raged out of control, forcing the evacuation of over 19,000 people in Rhodes alone.
Because of this, the tourism industry is set to go downhill, along with related businesses.
People are now researching cooler destinations like Denmark, Bulgaria, and the Czech Republic.